Risks and chances prediction of school innovative development: substantive and methodological aspects

The problem of school innovative educational activities is considered to be urgent due to the competition on the market of educational services. Content, technology and teaching educational innovations become the source of competitive advantages of the modern school. Innovation is always a risk, because only a few of them are implemented in reality and lead to positive results. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the content and methodological aspects of opportunities and risks prediction as an integral part of school innovative development. The basis of the author's position is the probabilistic nature of school, which is manifested in the uncertainty and unpredictability of the effects of innovations introduction in the educational process. Subjects of innovative activity, innovative activity itself and the environment are thought to be the main factors of uncertainty. Chances and risks are considered to be the forms of actualization of school future development. Chances and risks are objective and subjective. The author describes a hierarchy of predictable chances and risks, including operational, tactical and strategic levels. Chances and risks prediction is considered to be a mechanism for reducing the uncertainty and unpredictability of school innovative development. The author represents methodological aspects of opportunities and risks prediction. The paper contains an example of real educational practice.