A statistical model for the radiocarbon chronology of the Neolithic forest-steppe Volga region monuments

The paper deals with the chronology of the early Neolithic forest-steppe Zavolzhye monuments, which is based on radiocarbon definitions obtained from fragments of ceramics. Radiocarbon dates on Elshanskaya and Srednevolzhskaya culture monuments are collected in two tables. They are graphically represented by a probability interval for each date. For the conditional statistical unit the chronological interval of 125 years is accepted. On the basis of statistical data, the author has constructed graphs that reflect the frequency of dates occurrence for periods of 250 years. As for the Elshanskaya culture monuments the highest concentration of radiocarbon dates occurs on a chronological segment 5875–5250 cal BC (39% of all dates). Half of the dates are recorded on the segment 4750–4500 cal BC (21%). Only 12% of radiocarbon dates are in 6750–6250 cal BC, which belongs to the period of the Elshanskaya antiquities development. In our opinion, Elshanskaya culture could not exist unchanged for such a long time. Such a significant variation in time is apparently due to the imperfection of the dating method and the presence of «reservoir effects» of various kinds. Elshanskaya culture probably existed in 5875–5250 cal BC. At the final stage of Elshanskaya antiquities existence (5500–5250 cal BC) the monuments of Srednevolzhskaya culture started to develop.