Images and expectations of the future in the dynamics of mass consciousness of Russians in 2014–2023

The article is devoted to the analysis of the distinction between the concepts of “image of the future” and “expectations of the future” as important theoretical constructs for analyzing mass consciousness. The author proposes to understand “images of the future” as stable conceptual frameworks that reflect the cultural and value orientations of a given society. “Expectations of the future” are defined in the article as situational anticipations that respond to short-term challenges such as socio-economic and political crises. Based on this distinction, the author formulates the hypothesis that images of the future are more resistant to external influences than collective and individual expectations of the future. To test this hypothesis, the author refers to data from mass public opinion surveys conducted by the Institute of Sociology, FCTAS RAS, from 2014 to 2023. These data illustrate how the socio-economic and political crises of the last decade have affected Russians’ images and expectations of the future. One possible operationalization of the theoretical concept of the “image of the future” is examined through respondents’ answers to the question about Russia’s development goals in the 21st century. Analysis of the dynamics of these indicators reveals that the most prevalent image of the future is that of an economically developed state that influences international affairs through political means. The relevance of this image for the majority of respondents has remained constant over the past decade. As one possible representation of collective expectations for the future, the article analyzes Russians’ opinions about the country’s prospects in the near future. The dynamics of responses to this question show that perceptions of the “tomorrow” are significantly influenced by the socioeconomic and political situation. During crises, the proportion of pessimistic respondents increases, while those who believe in the successful development of the country or hope for the preservation of the status quo decreases. The analysis presented in the article allows the author to conclude that there are grounds for a clearer distinction between the concepts of “image of the future” and “expectations of the future” and highlights the need for further research to validate the hypothesis.

future studies, futurology, future, image of the future, ideas about the future, social changes