Demographic Aspects of Population Ageing in Saint-Petersburg at the End of 20th–The Beginning of 21st Century. Part II. Prospective Ageing Measures

Abstract

The paper is the second part of the series of two papers on demographic aspects of population ageing in Saint-Petersburg in 1990–2014 compared to the situation in the Russian Federation as a whole. In the first part, the situation with population ageing in Saint-Petersburg and Russia was considered based on conventional ageing measures—proportion of the elderly in the total population, ageing index, old age dependency rate and parent support ratio [6]. In the second part, a number of prospective ageing measures that take account of remaining life expectancy are studied, such as proportion of population above old-age threshold (proportion of population with remaining life expectancy 15 years or less), POADR (prospective old-age dependency ratio), population average remaining years of life (PARYL). Prospective ageing indicators are compared with their traditional analogues. Gender imbalance of prospective ageing measures has been considered. Acceleration of population ageing of St. Petersburg and Russia leads to a new demographic situation, which requires the adoption of appropriate economic and social measures.