Changes in water regime in the high-mountain region of the Terek River (North Caucasus) in connection with climate change and degradation of glaciation

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Abstract

In this study, we adapted the ECOMAG model of the runoff formation for analysis of the Terek River basin using comprehensive hydrometeorological information as well as data on soils, landscape, and glaciation. To take account of regional characteristics of the glaciation, the additional ice module was used with the model. This improvement has resulted in a satisfactory agreement between the modeled runoff hydrographs and the observed ones. In our simulations we used the updated glacier cover predictions from the- global glaciological model GloGEMflowdebris together with regional climate projections from the CORDEX experiment to determine possible future changes in the Terek River flow in the 21st century. The results show that the runoff will change between −2% and +5% according to the RCP2.6 scenario, and from −8% to +14% in the RCP8.5 scenario. The directedness of the runoff changes in particular subbasins of the River will essentially depend on the altitude position of the snow and glacier feeding zones, that is responsible for the intensity of their degradation. Thus, in the RCP8.5 scenario, the flow of the Chegem River will begin to decrease significantly in the second half of the 21st century. In contrast, the predicted increasing of the runoff in Malka and Baksan rivers, which are primarily fed by meltwater from glaciers and snow on Elbrus and other high-mountain zones, is expected to be continued until the end of the century. But this increase may be caused only by a growth of a part of the snowmelt feeding due to greater winter precipitation. The model estimates confirm the present-day observed trends within the intra-annual runoff distribution, demonstrating the earlier start of the spring flood, a decrease in summer runoff volumes and then its increase in the autumn months. The results of the research may be used for more efficient management of water resources in the North Caucasus in the future, including electricity generation and water supply.

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About the authors

E. D. Kornilova

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: ekaterina.kornilova.hydro@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

I. N. Krylenko

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: ekaterina.kornilova.hydro@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

E. P. Rets

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: ekaterina.kornilova.hydro@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Moscow

Yu. G. Motovilov

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: ekaterina.kornilova.hydro@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Moscow

I. A. Korneva

Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Natural and Technical Systems

Email: ekaterina.kornilova.hydro@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Moscow; Sevastopol

T. N. Postnikova

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: ekaterina.kornilova.hydro@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Moscow

O. O. Rybak

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Natural and Technical Systems

Email: ekaterina.kornilova.hydro@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Moscow; Sevastopol

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. The Terek River basin to the Mozdok outlet: 1 — hydrological gauges; 2 — hydrological gauges and meteorological stations; 3 — meteorological stations; 4 — mountain peaks; 5 — state border of the Russian Federation; 6 — glaciers (RGI 6.0)

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3. Fig. 2. Trends in changes in average annual temperature (а) and annual precipitation (б) according to actual data from meteorological stations (1977—2014), average annual (в) and maximum (г) annual discharges according to actual data from hydrological gauges in the Terek River basin (1977—2018)

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4. Fig. 3. The scheme of assimilation of data from climatic and glaciological modeling by the ECOMAG model

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5. Fig. 4. Predicted changes in the average annual air temperature (а), annual precipitation (б) and glaciation area (в) for river basins to various outlets in the Terek River basin for two (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5)

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6. Fig. 5. Predicted anomalies of average monthly air temperatures (а), precipitation (б) and snowmelt (в) in the Terek River basin for two different scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) within the studied catchment area

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7. Fig. 6. Anomalies of the average monthly discharges relative to the base historical period (а: 1 — Baksan–Tyrnyauz; 2 — Baksan–Zayukovo; 3 — Chegem–Nizhny Chegem; 4 — Malka–Kamennomostskoye; 5 — Terek–Kotlyarevskaya), transformation of the intra–annual flow distribution and its anomalies in the Baksan River – Tyrnyauz (б) and the Chegem River – Nizhny Chegem (в) in scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5

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