Email this article Population aging and the demographic burden on the Russian pension system
- Authors: Potapenko V.V.1
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Affiliations:
- Institute of Economics of the RAS
- Issue: No 5 (2025)
- Pages: 27-45
- Section: Economics and management
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/2073-6487/article/view/352249
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_5_27_45
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/ISBAMN
- ID: 352249
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Abstract
The article describes a scenario forecast of changes of the demographic burden on the pension system and the economy of Russia in general due to ongoing aging of the population. An approach to forecasting a number of employed based on demographic indicators and labor market characteristics is proposed. The changes in gender and age levels of labor force participation rates are discussed, including their growth among the pre-retirement and retirement age groups as a result of an increase in the retirement age. It is shown that in the long term, the demographic burden on the Russian economy will rise, but will not exceed the previously observed level. However, it is demonstrated that the main challenge associated with the growth of such a burden is its redistribution between age groups, from children and youth to the old population. The possible answer to this challenge is the modification of the state pension system of Russia, in particular, the incorporation of a basic pension income into it.
About the authors
Vadim V. Potapenko
Institute of Economics of the RAS
Author for correspondence.
Email: vvpotapenko.ecfor@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3825-831X
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher, Laboratory for Research on the Basic Pension Income
Russian Federation, MoscowReferences
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