Formation of the Development Options for Energy Systems by Combinatorial Modeling Methods

Abstract

Under discussion are the requirements from the tools for analysis of long-term strategies for the development of energy systems and the possibility of using combinatorial modeling methods for studying discrete solutions in this development. The basis of the methods is the representation of the development of the modeled system in the form of a directed graph whose nodes correspond to possible states of the system at certain time, whereas the links characterize the admissibility of transitions from one state to another. The methods of combinatorial modeling, as a visual form of representation of dynamic discrete branching alternatives, allow us to simulate a long-term process of the development of the investigated system under various possible external and internal conditions and then determine a rational strategy for its development. We describe an algorithm for formation of the graph of feasible options for the development of the system. The approach is illustrated by an example. The described algorithms are implemented in the software package for a distributed computing environment.