Structural Shifts and the Participation of Russian Industries in Global Value Chains: An Analysis Using World Input-Output Tables

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Abstract

Russia actively participates in the international division of labor, global trade, and cross-border value chains. Foreign trade represents a significant share of its gross domestic product. In recent years, the Russian government has been strengthening its public policy to carry out infrastructure and production projects as well as use tax, credit, budgetary, and other policy measures to stimulate economic growth. Hence, there is a growing demand for economic research using mathematical models for managing the economy and industries based on world input-output models with foreign trade blocks highlighted therein. This paper introduces into scientific circulation the world input-output tables created in recent decades, including their brief overview. We propose a model for the Russian economy based on Leontief’s Input–Output tables in which each industry’s supplies of products to other industries are decomposed into domestic output and import flows. The model is verified using an example of the mining, manufacturing, and transport complexes of Russia. Their output dynamics and structural shifts are estimated for the period 2000–2018 considering the foreign trade component. Special attention is paid to the participation of these complexes in Global Value Chains (GVCs). We present and analyze formulas for determining the participation of industries in GVCs. According to the calculations, Russia’s involvement in mining, manufacturing, and transport GVCs is comparable with other countries having large territories, mineral reserves, and transport communications, such as the United States and Australia. Some promising lines to improve the model are described.

About the authors

V. G Varnavskii

Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: varnavsky@imemo.ru
Moscow, Russia

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