Unemployment and GRP production losses assessment in Russian regions

The paper analyzes duration of the search for work by the unemployed and presents estimation of the GRP losses in production in Russian regions. Losses in GRP production are calculated taking into account the output per 1 employed in terms of the number of unemployed who retain their status for more than 6 months. This allows us to assess the economic consequences of unemployment connected with the most dangerous — long-term — unemployment. There is significant regional differentiation both in terms of the scale of long-term unemployment and of output per one employed, while the unemployment rate in our country is declining. The analysis was made according to the data from the «Labor Force Surveys» of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia. The largest share of unemployed with a job search duration of more than six months is recorded in the republics of the North Caucasus Federal District, and losses in the production as a percentage of GRP are in the Republic of Ingushetia (in 2021, the losses made more than 21%). Minimal losses are registered in St. Petersburg. Although the unemployment in our country is declining, in many regions the share of unemployed with job search duration of more than six months remains significant and amounts to more than 40% of the unemployed, and in some regions it increased in 2023. So that these short-term changes do not lead to an increase in long-term unemployment in these and in other regions, as well as, accordingly, to an increase in losses in the production of gross product and an increase in tension in the labor market in the context of digitalization, it is necessary to continue paying attention to this problem and implement measures to stimulate and motivate these unemployed, as well as a potential labor force, to move into the category of employed population.

unemployment, job search duration, region, losses in GRP production, assessment