Demographic factor in the economic development of the regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2005–2022

Dynamics of important demographic and economic processes in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) is developing according to a more unfavorable scenario compared to the all-Russian trends. Most of the SFD territories are characterized by a long-term natural population decline, decrease in the number and proportion of working-age population and rising demographic burden. Increase of the demographic burden in the industrial regions of the SFD is due to the number of people over working age, while in the national republics of South Siberia, it is due to larger numbers of children and adolescents. High mortality rate of the SFD population has a negative impact on life expectancy, especially for men. An important role in the dynamics of the processes under study belongs to the natural resource and industrial character of the development of Krasnoyarsk Krai, Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Omsk, Tomsk oblasts and the Republic of Khakassia. A significant part of the Siberian population lives in unfavorable environmental conditions, they have lower living standards and higher poverty rates as compared to the national average. The authors used correlation and regression analyses to reveal a significant and moderate correlation between demographic factors and economic development of the SFD regions. Employment showed a negative correlation with the increase in demographic burden and mortality from external factors. Life expectancy has a positive correlation with population employment and gross regional product (GRP) level. Demographic burden, mortality caused by external factors, and life expectancy proved to be more significant for population employment rate, and moderately or weakly relevant for average per capita GRP. The authors propose a typology of the SFD regions based on their level of economic development and specifics of the demographic situation. The typology includes three types: first, the most problematic and less developed regions; second, less problematic ones; and third, the regions whose development indicators are close to the Russian average. The suggested typology is practically relevant as it can be used in adjusting the objectives of demographic and economic development of the regions in the Siberian Federal District.

natural population decline, age structure, ageing of the population, mortality, life expectancy, employment rate, GRP