Prospects of changes in the total size and age composition of adults with disability in Russia

Abstract

This article has considered an approach to forecasting the number and age–sex composition of disabled people aged 20 and older in Russia. The approach is based on hypotheses that connect the dynamics of disability level with mortality change scenarios in demographic projections. The results show that a decrease in the number of disabled people at ages up to 60 years and an increase in their number after the age 60 years, as well as an increase in disability prevalence among the population aged over 20 years due to demographic aging should be expected in the coming decades.