Email this article To the Problem of Verification of Methods for Short-range Forecasting of Hydrological Parameters
- Authors: Sokolov A.A.1, Bugaets A.N.2,3
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Affiliations:
- Primorye Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
- Pacific Institute of Geography, Far Eastern Branch
- Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute
- Issue: Vol 43, No 8 (2018)
- Pages: 539-543
- Section: Article
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/article/view/230664
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837391808006X
- ID: 230664
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Abstract
The main principles of the existing methodology for the verification of forecasting techniques in the absence of the sample volume impact on the accuracy of determination of statistical parameters are considered. A method is proposed for the verification, comparison, and selection of forecasting methods. The method is based on the persistence of the predicted phenomenon and allows creating optimum forecast schemes with account of priority of expected parameters of accuracy. It is anticipated that the obtained results will find application in the practice of hydrological forecasting.
About the authors
A. A. Sokolov
Primorye Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
Author for correspondence.
Email: sokolov-aa@meteoprim.ru
Russian Federation, ul. Mordovtseva 3, Vladivostok, 690990
A. N. Bugaets
Pacific Institute of Geography, Far Eastern Branch; Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute
Email: sokolov-aa@meteoprim.ru
Russian Federation, ul. Radio 7, Vladivostok, 690041; ul. Fontannaya 24, Vladivostok, 690600
