Modeling Technology-Related Risks of Electrical Plants on Production Sites by Analyzing Man–Machine Systems

Аннотация

The fundamentals of diagnosing the technical condition of electrical plants in a real-time environment are disclosed. The key provisions of the theory of technology-related risks caused by the hazardous effect of current on people and objects in the form of accidents, electrical shocks, and fires are formulated. The concept of “integral risk” is introduced, its mathematical model developed, and a classification of risks provided. It is proposed to assess an integral risk as the product of the occurrence probability of a hazardous technology-related situation and its effect (outcome). It is supposed that the technology-related safety and efficiency of onsite electrical plants can be controlled by establishing the interaction among the components of the man–machine system, including a man (MN), electrical plant (EPL), and environment (ENV). The fundamentals of the technique of identifying and predicting risks with ambiguous information are considered, and the software implementation of this technique by logical linguistic modeling and the fuzzy logic apparatus is provided. A system approach to optimizing the integral operating risk of the MN–EPL–ENV system is formulated.