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Vol 44, No 6 (2018)

Crop Production

Oat-Sowing Methods on Drained Lands

Mitrofanov Y.I., Pugacheva L.V., Smirnova N.A., Lapushkina V.N.

Abstract

The article presents the results of research on oat-sowing methods on drained lands. The research was carried out on the experimental fields of the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution All-Russia Research Institute of Reclaimed Lands (VNIIMZ). In experiments, ordinary row (SZ-3.6), surface-scattered, and comb-like band-scattered sowing methods were compared. It has been established that oats on desiccated lands should be grown on crests 40–80 mm high with local compaction of soil under the crest and pressing seeds into the soil. The yield increments with the comb method of sowing are 0.13–0.39 t/ha or 3.6–13.9% in relation to the existing sowing technology (SZ-3.6), and direct costs for the production of 1 t of grain are reduced by 2.9–10.5%. The yield of oats was increased, mainly due to an increase in the number of grains in a panicle by 4.2–9.8 pieces, and its total productivity was increased by 11.3–34.7%. Pressing seeds into the soil with the comb method of sowing increased the yield of oats against the background of cultivation by 0.21–0.28 t/ha, increased the safety of oat plants, increased the number of stems with a panicle at 9.2–11.5%, and the mass of the grain in a panicle by 1.9–6.5% due to the increase in the number of grains. A certain interest for the conditions of the northwest of the Nonchernozem zone, especially of small peasant holdings, is also represented by the scattered method of sowing oats without coulter. Labor productivity in sowing increases 1.5–3 times, labor costs per 1 hectare during sowing operations are reduced by 37.6–58.4%, and fuel consumption is reduced by 7.4–39.2%. When using trailed spreaders of mineral fertilizers for sowing seeds, there is no need for separate auxiliary operations, special loaders and transport for seed transportation. At the same time, the terms of field work are reduced, the adaptation of seeding technology to soil-meliorative conditions is increased, and the sealing effect of running systems of tractors and machines on soil is reduced (by 2–4 times).

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):493-498
pages 493-498 views

Time Determination of Conducting Senication of Rice Crops Taking Into Account the Sum of Effective Temperatures

Sheudzhen A.K., Bondareva T.N., Kharchenko P.N., Doroshev I.A., Khurum K.D.

Abstract

Analysis of the moisture dynamics of leaves, stems, and panicles, as well as caryopsis filling, after treating rice crops with senicants showed that senication (if necessary) should be carried out for acceleration of ripening and biosynthesis of organic substances when the sum of temperatures above 15°C has reached 700–750°C. When carried out during this period, it does not cause premature dehydration of leaves and panicles and does not slow the caryopsis filling, which causes caryopsis moisture to reach 25% 3–10 days earlier and an increase of 3.5–10% by weight of panicles and rice yield by 0.30–0.39 t/ha in comparison with the control. It is viable to use aqueous solutions of ammonium nitrate at the rate of 15 kg/ha or carbamideammonium mixture CAM-32 diluted with water in a ratio of 1: 5 modified by adding 400 g/ha of manganese with a rate of working solution of 200–250 L/ha for this purpose.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):499-504
pages 499-504 views

Seed Sowing Qualities of Corn Parental Forms Depending on the Storage Conditions and Terms

Sotchenko V.S., Gorbacheva A.G., Panfilov A.E., Vetoshkina I.A.

Abstract

The influence of storage duration and conditions for seeds of four corn hybrid parental forms with two sowing terms on their laboratory and field germination is studied. After 5 years of storage in a freezing chamber, the laboratory germination of the seeds was 82–87%, that at the warehouse with the uncontrolled conditions in the untreated seeds was 51–88%, and that in the treated seeds was 23–69%. The decrease of the laboratory germination according to the regression coefficient is not statistically proven for the parental forms of Nimfa C and Milena M during storage of the seeds in the freezing chamber and for the parental form of Madonna M in uncontrolled conditions. The storage of the treated sees of all parental forms led to a significant germination decrease (regression coefficient from–5.6 to–15.8%). According to the variance analysis data, the laboratory germination of the seeds after 5 years of storage depended by 36.5% on its duration and by 19.5% on the storage conditions. According to the clod test data for 2016–2017 (after 4 and 5 years of storage), it is determined 60.2% by the storage conditions, 15.4% by the plant genotype, and 15.7% by the interaction of these factors. The field germination of the seeds depended both on the sowing qualities, conditions, and duration of storage and the growing conditions, and it significantly varied by the years of study. In 2016–2017 during the first sowing period and in 2016 during the second sowing period, the best indicators of the field germination of the seeds in all parental forms were specified only in the condition of storage of the seeds in the freezing chamber. The decrease of these indicators in other variants was 2–31%. In 2013–2017 during the first sowing period and in 2013–2016 during the second sowing period, the germination of the seeds was determined by the interaction of the factors “seeds' storage duration” and “parental form genotype” by 79.8 and 52.3% respectively. The second most important factor in both cases was the interaction of the duration and conditions of seeds' storage: respectively 6.7 and 19.2%.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):505-509
pages 505-509 views

Problems of Obtaining Planned Potato Harvests in the Southern Urals

Vasiliev A.A., Gorbunov A.K.

Abstract

Analysis of the results of four multifactorial experiments revealed the reasons limiting the possibility of obtaining a planned potato crop of 40 t/ha in the conditions of the Southern Urals. The effectiveness of mineral fertilizers in the norms established by the calculation and balance method is noticeably reduced in arid years, which are observed here every 4 years. The uneven moistening of the vegetation period and the high severity of infectious diseases, especially rhizoctonia, necessitates the dressing of seed tubers (Maxim, TMTD, Prestige) and the combined use of Mival-agro, which increases plant resistance to stress. To achieve the planned yield (40 t/ha), one should use a plastic Nevsky variety and adaptive varieties of local breeding: Spiridon, Tarasov, and Kuzovok. For the effective assimilation of photosynthetic active radiation, thickened schemes (75 × 24 and 75 × 19 cm) of potato planting should be used in the second decade of May. Planting in the third decade of May allows one to obtain the planned level of yield, but the dry matter content in the tubers of the Rozara variety decreases by an average of 1.5% and that of the Kuzovok variety by 2.5%; the starch content by 1.5 and 1.4%, and the accumulation of nitrates increases by 1.2 and 1.6 times, respectively. The late (June 5–12) planting of potatoes to a depth of 10–12 cm ensures the formation of a planned crop of 40 t/ha in the Kuzovok variety; however, the dry matter content in tubers is reduced by an average of 4.0%, starch content by 2.5%, and the content of nitrates increases by 2.0 times compared with the planting on May 12–15.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):510-515
pages 510-515 views

Using A3, A4, and 9E CMS Types in Breeding Grain Sorghum Hybrids

Kibalnik O.P., Semin D.S.

Abstract

The results of the evaluation of the combining ability (GCA and SCA effects; SCA dispersions) of the sorghum CMS lines in the test crosses have been reported. Inclusion of the Zheltozernyi 10 genome maternal lines differing in the type of the sterile cytoplasm (A3, A4, and 9E) into the crossing program can provide the opportunity to perform the pure genetic analysis of the cytoplasmic effects on the combining ability. Eighteen pollinators of the grain sorghum selected in the Rossorgo Russian Research and Project-Technological Institute of Sorghum and Corn were used as the paternal parents. A significant influence of the 9E cytoplasm on the GCA effects of the maternal line inflorescence length was revealed. The dominance additive genetic effects in the genetically controlled traits of the CMS lines (plant height, inflorescence and labellum parameters, and grain crop yield) were recorded. The 9E Zheltozernoe 10/Magistr hybrid is recommended for the competitive variety trials, while the seven combinations are advised to be included into the three-line hybrid system.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):516-520
pages 516-520 views

Methods for Ecologization of the Protection System in Pear Plantations

Skrylev A.A., Kashirskaja N.J.

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research on the use of drugs Delan (WG, 700 g/kg), Stroby (WDG, 500 g/kg), Poliram DF (WDG, 700 g/kg), Skor (EC, 250 g/L) and plant growth regulators Emistim (S, 0.01 g/L) and Epin-extra (S, 0.025 g/L) in the fight against dominant diseases in the fruit bearing plantations of the Osennyaya Yakovleva pear variety, which were carried out by the Michurin Federal Scientific Center in the conditions of growing seasons in 2011–2014. It is shown that the mono-factor application of plant growth regulators over a long period contributes to an annual increase in their biological efficacy in the control of septoriosis to 83%. The combined use of fungicides and plant growth regulators in plantations increased biological efficacy to 99.8% and reduced plant stress.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):521-523
pages 521-523 views

Forestry

Analysis of Ecological Functions of Birch and Oak Stands in the Conditions of an Urbanized Environment Based on the Materials of Long-Term Observations

Dubenok N.N., Kuzmichev V.V., Lebedev A.V.

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyze the productivity and ecological functions of birch and oak stands growing under various anthropogenic influences. The objects of the study are birch and oak stands in permanent test plots of the Forest Experimental District of the Russian State Agrarian University—Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy. It is revealed that oak stands are more productive than birch stands in the conditions of the city of Moscow. The contribution of both tree species to the formation of a positive oxygen balance of cities is approximately the same. Analysis of leaf surface index values shows that crowns of birch stands are capable of retaining more solids suspended in the air than oak stands. To maintain the ecological, aesthetic, sanitary-hygienic, and oxygen-producing functions of stands in the conditions of the city of Moscow, it is necessary to carry out economic measures aimed at the formation of mixed, uneven-aged coniferous- deciduous forests.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):524-527
pages 524-527 views

Plant Protection

Novel Native Insectoacaricides Based on Avermectins

Dolzhenko T.V., Karakotov S.D., Dolzhenko V.I.

Abstract

Data on assessment of biological efficiency of insectoacaricides based on Abamectin and Emamectin benzoate, metabolites of soil actinomyces, for farm crop protection systems against pests are presented. Efficiency of new products not yet included in the Federal Catalogue of Pesticides was studied. These were Mekar (ME, 18 g/L of abamectin) against the apple sucker (Psylla mali Schmid.) in Orel and Tambov oblasts and Krasnodar krai, against mites in apple trees in Rostov, Tambov, and Orel oblasts, and Yunona (ME, 50 g/L of emamectin benzoate) against codling moth in Rostov oblast and Krasnodar krai. The trials conducted on assessment of effects of new local products created on the basis of actinomyces metabolites confirmed a high biological efficiency in the regulation of the pest of apple trees. Mekar (ME, 18 g/L) and Yunona (ME, 50 g/L) may be recommended for the control of pest apple trees in biologized and adaptively integrated plant protection systems after their registration in Russia.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):528-532
pages 528-532 views

Fodder Production

Rating Fodder Areas on the Systems of Gullies and Ravines in the Central Russian Upland

Knyazeva E.P., Kolomeichenko V.V.

Abstract

The article presents the results of inspecting two gully systems with a total area of 800 hectares located on the land of the Tula Research Institute of Agriculture. The purpose of the study was recording the current status of pastures and grasslands exposed to radiation. The experimental data is obtained for the current status of old growth herbage: productivity, botanical and biochemical composition, agrochemical properties of the soil, and the degree of radioactive contamination of the soil and plants with 137Cs on the slopes of different exposition and steepness. It is found that the most suitable rhizomatous species for land recultivation is awnless brome (Bromopsis inermis Leyss). Its content in old-growth herbage reached 70–98% on the bottoms of the gullies after more than 35 years since the grass was sown. The content of 137Cs in dry matter in the conditions of radioactive contamination did not exceed the standard veterinary regulations (VR 13.5 13/06–1) for hay (400 Bq kg–1).

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):533-538
pages 533-538 views

Fitopatology

Species Composition of Fusarium Fungi Revealed on Spring Barley Crops in Central Russia in 2015–2017

Glinushkin A.P., Ovsyankina A.V., Kiseleva M.I.

Abstract

Species composition of Fusarium fungi and the frequency of their occurrence on spring barley crops in the Moscow, Tula, and Vladimir oblasts of Russia have been studied in 2015–2017. Over 700 strains of fungi belonging to 12 species of the genus Fusarium have been isolated into pure culture. The species composition of these fungi in the studied regions includes both common and rare species. Fungal cultures isolated from roots and reproductive organs demonstrated a high uniformity of their species composition that may be explained by a similarity of soil and climatic conditions and by the susceptibility of barley cultivars to soilborne micromycetes. The frequency of occurrence of the fungi on underground parts of plants was rather uniform, while that on the grain depended on the environmental conditions prevailing during the flowering and ripening stages. Among isolated Fusarium strains, 33 isolates with stable morphological and cultural characteristics have been deposited into the State Collection of Plant Pathogenic Microorganisms. Strains with the highest pathogenicity and toxicity were recommended for the artificial infection background created during regional trials of barley cultivars for disease resistance.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):539-545
pages 539-545 views

Agrochemistry. Soil Science

Influence of Fertilizers, Biomass of White Mustard, and Biopreparation Rhizoagrin on Yield and Grain Quality of Spring Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and Sustainability of the Agroecosystem

Alferov A.A., Chernova L.S.

Abstract

The use of white mustard biomass as green manure for spring wheat increased the grain yield by 58%, and the introduction of nitrogen fertilizer in the dose of N45 increased it by 42%. Inoculation of seeds with rhizoagrin (RA) ensured an increase in grain yield by 15%. The maximum grain yield was obtained by introducing mustard biomass and ammonium nitrate and inoculating the seeds with RA (+120%). At the same time, the content of raw protein in the grain increased to a greater extent with the addition of mustard biomass (+0.8%) and nitrogen fertilizer (+0.7%). When treating seeds with RA, the protein content of the grain tended to increase. Sustainability of the agroecosystem is characterized by nitrogen flows. During the growing season of spring wheat, the amount of mineralized nitrogen, depending on the fertilizer, reached 17.7–30.2 g/m, while the amount of reimmobilized nitrogen was 4.4–15.1 g/m2. Inoculation of seeds with RA did not significantly affect the processes of mineralization and reimmobilization; only a tendency of increase in mineralization and reimmobilization of nitrogen in the soil was noted. Indicators of the integral evaluation of functioning of the agroecosystem in the sowing of spring wheat with the introduction of mustard biomass indicate that the system is in a sustainable state (homeostasis) (RI: M = 50%, N-M: RI = 1.0). The use of nitrogenous fertilizer brings the agroecosystem to the resistant state: the zone of maximum permissible exposure level (RI: M = 25%, N-M: RI = 3.1). On average, over the years of research, inoculation of seeds with RA did not change the resistance indicators of the agroecosystem during fertilizer application.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):546-550
pages 546-550 views

Melioration

Diagnostic Parameters of Irrigated Meadow-Serozemic and Alluvial- Meadow Soils of the Mugan-Sal’yany Massif of Azerbaijan

Mustafayev M.G., Mazhaysky Y.A., Vinogradov D.V.

Abstract

Data on irrigated saline soils of the Mugan-Sal’yany Massif (Azerbaijan) and factors of its salinization are given. The studies enabled the revealing of diagnostic parameters of irrigated meadow-serozemic and alluvial-meadow soils of the massif. The structure of its profile is AYa'ca z–AYа"ca z–Bca z s m–BCca cs–Cs ca and AUa'z–AYa"z–Bca g–BCg–Cs ca, respectively. It has been revealed that the areas with unsatisfactory status of drainage and irrigation networks are characterized by a rise in groundwater level and mineralization and in salt content in soil as well as by poorer water-physical and chemical soil properties. The operation of the existing drainage system and the regular water drain into a collecting system should be organized in order to improve water-physical soil properties. In the areas where drainage systems cannot be repaired, temporary drains (0.8–1.0 m deep) at a distance of 25–50 m from one another and temporary collecting reservoirs (1.0–1.5 m deep) are recommended. It is necessary to provide discharge of irrigation water into constant drains. Taking into consideration the increase in salt content in the entire area, furrowing, sprinkling, and other irrigation methods are useful.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):551-558
pages 551-558 views

Animal Husbandry

The Role of Nitric Oxide in the Exocrine Pancreatic Function in Chicken

Titov V.Y., Vertiprakhov V.G., Ushakov A.S., Fisinin V.I., Kochish I.I., Petrov V.A.

Abstract

The universal cell mediator nitric oxide (NO) mediating the physiological effects via so-called NO donor compounds prolonging its life time. The concentration of NO metabolites in the pancreatic juice of chicken was determined by the enzymatic sensor. It was found that pancreatic juice from starved birds contains nitrate and no other nitro- or nitroso compounds. After feeding, the NO donors appear in pancreatic juice in concentrations of a few tens of μM. These compounds were present in pancreatic juice for several hours after feeding. It is possible that NO donors promote relaxation of the smooth muscles in the walls of pancreatic ducts. Concentration of NO donors in blood serum also increased 2.5–3.0-fold after feeding and remained high during a few subsequent hours. The preliminary subcutaneous administration of atropine to the birds prevent this increase with no effects on the initial concentrations of NO donors in serum. This suggests that the increase is associated with cholinergic stimulation and, therefore, with the activity of the parasympathetic nervous system. The concentration of trypsin in serum also increased after feeding, and atropine also prevents this increase. It is known that serum trypsin acts as a regulator of pancreatic function. Intravenous administration of trypsin led to an insignificant increase of tryptic activity in serum but induced the increase of NO donor concentration twofold. Apparently, nitric oxide, represented by these compounds, can act as a humoral factor in the regulation of pancreatic function in pancreatic juice and possibly in the blood.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):559-562
pages 559-562 views

Effect of the PGR Genotype on Economically Valuable Traits in Animals of the Holstein Breed

Machulskaya E.V., Kovalyuk N.V., Satsuk V.F., Shakhnazarova Y.Y.

Abstract

Genotyping for locus PGR (progesterone receptor gene) of the Holstein servicing bulls (World Wide Sires) was carried out. The frequencies of alleles and genotypes of this locus are given. Significant (P < 0.05) superiority of the homozygous genotype AA of locus PGR was found in relation to the heterozygous genotype AG for several economically valuable traits: PTAM (predicted transmitting ability for milk, 380 points), PL (productive life, by 1.3 months), and FE (feed cost–feeding efficiency index, 37 points). Significant superiority (P < 0.05) of the homozygous genotype GG over the heterozygous genotype AG for the PL trait was also found, by 1.2 months. The obtained data can be used for marker-dependent breeding.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):563-565
pages 563-565 views

Veterinary

Genetic Transformation of a Mouse Cell Line with Genes of the Receptor for Equine Infectious Anemia Virus (ELR1) and Cyclin T1 (eCT1)

Savchenkova I.P., Savchenkova E.A., Alexeenkova S.V., Yurov K.P.

Abstract

The complexity of the pathogenesis and insufficient knowledge of the equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) make it necessary to find an adequate laboratory model for studying the infectious process and the immune response. One of the ways to solve this problem is the production of cell cultures with the desired properties using genetic transformation. The aim of the present study was to obtain mouse embryonic fibroblasts with genes of the receptor of the equine infectious anemia virus (ELR1) and cyclin T1 (eCT1). For this purpose, cells were transfected with pcDNA3.1-ELR1 and pcDNA3.1-cycT1 plasmids containing nucleotide sequences of the target genes using the calcium-phosphate method. Eight stable genetically transformed clones of STO cells with [ELR1eCT1neo]+ phenotype were obtained using the selection of cells on G418. The frequency of genetic STO transformation was 2.8 × 10–5. The integration of genes into the cell genome was detected by PCR using gene-specific primers with subsequent nucleotide sequencing using DNA isolated from cells as the matrix. The expression of equine ELR1 and eCT1 genes in mouse fibroblasts was confirmed at the transcriptional level by the presence of the mRNA of the target genes in the RT-PCR reaction. The obtained stable STO cell line was deposited in the cell culture collection of the All-Russia Scientific Research Institute of Experimental Veterinary Medicine Federal Scientific Center.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):566-569
pages 566-569 views

Storage and Processing of Agricultural Products

Estimating the Nutrient Balance of Multicomponent Meat Products Using Information Technologies

Nikitina M.A., Zakharov A.N.

Abstract

A computer system for the quality and nutrient balance assessment of multicomponent meat products, which is used for calculating the quantitative and qualitative indicators of food products, has been examined. In the computer system, the amino acid qualitative composition is determined by the comparative redundancy factor, the amino acid composition differences, the utility, and the biological value. The main block of the computer system is the Food Product Chemical Composition general reference database, which consists of five subblocks: the amino acid, fatty acid, carbohydrate, vitamin, and mineral composition datasets. In order to develop the database, the object-oriented environments with the application of the Delphi- 7 desktop relational database management system are used. The second main block of the computer system is the Product Design block. An example of the computer system operation to assess the quality of the amino acid balance in the emulsified meat products (small sausages) is given. Four-percent soy protein incorporated into the formulation has been shown to change the main raw material composition (decreasing the secondgrade trimmed beef content from 48 to 35% and the semifat pork content from 30 to 23%). No significant change in the amino acid composition, the biological value (comprising 90.7 and 89.58% before and after adding, respectively), the amino acid score difference factor (comprising 9.3 and 10.43% before and after adding, respectively), the comparative redundancy factor (comprising 0.33 and 0.38 unit fractions, respectively), and the utility (9.16 and 9.04 unit fractions, respectively) has been revealed.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):570-575
pages 570-575 views

Fatty Acids and Antimicrobial Properties of Red Table Wine

Khalilova E.A., Kotenko S.T., Aliverdieva D.A., Islammagomedova E.A., Abakarova A.A., Gasanov R.Z., Millueva A.G.

Abstract

The article presents research findings on fatty acids and antibacterial properties of red wine, which is known for its unique physiological effect on the human body. The subjects of research were red table wines (the vintage of 2016) produced at the Derbent sparkling wine factory from grapes grown in Derbentskii district of the Dagestan Republic. Wines were produced from a Cabernet grape variety from the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Y-4270 (experiment) and Saccharomyces cerevisiae Derbent-19 (control) wine yeast strains. Fatty acid compositions using gas-liquid chromatography and the antibacterial properties against gram-positive bacteria with a standard agar diffusion technique were examined. A total of 28 fatty acids (C10–C22) were identified in all samples of wine. The experimental sample was noted for a reduced content (by 8.63%) of saturated fatty acids undesirable for living organisms as the factor of nutrition that increases levels of cholesterol and atherogenic lipoprotein. The total amount of unsaturated fatty acids was observed to increase by 18.67% due to the dominance of С18:2, С18:2ω-6, and С24:1ω-9. The predominance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (double), monounsaturated (by 9.56%), and polyenoic fatty acids (by 12.09%), which contribute to the composition of wine flavor, was detected. The amount of ω-6 acids is 42.12% higher, primarily owing to linoleic C18:2ω-6 (by 16.48%) and γ-Linolenic C18:3ω-6 (almost by a factor of four) acids. A significant content of ω-3 acids (almost by a factor of 11) was revealed, specifically, linolenic C18:3ω-3, eicosapentaenoic C20:5ω-3, and docosahexaenoic C22:6ω-3 acids, which improve lipid metabolism and have a positive effect on the immune system. In general, the total content of ω-9 acids was sufficiently high in both samples of wine due to the predominance of oleic C18:1ω-9 acid. The experimental red table wine has been found to possess antibacterial properties against bacteria Shigella sonnei, Salmonella typhimurium, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Proteus vulgaris, Proteus mirabilis, and Staphylococcus saprophyticus, resulting from the constituent conditions of the wine, including polyphenolic and antioxidant compounds, which provide the product with improved biochemical and nutrient properties.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):576-581
pages 576-581 views

Modeling

Stochastic Modeling and Estimation of the Probability of Productivity Losses

Yakushev V.P., Yakushev V.V., Bure V.M.

Abstract

Adoption of responsible managerial decisions in the conditions of potentially large or even “catastrophic” economic losses requires, apart from expert evaluation, the obligatory use of objective scientific approaches to the assessment of the possible risks. Such methods allow one to give an objective assessment of the risks in the current or forecasted critical situation. The article proposes a stochastic model for estimation of the productivity losses probability in the crop production in the conditions of various climatic scenarios, including the “bad” and “abnormally bad” seasons. The approach is based on the use of a modified algorithm for estimating the parameters of the finite mixture of distributions to the retrospective information about the productivity of the crop in a given geographic area within the previous years. The adequacy of the model is tested based on the real data. Extensive statistical material is accumulated at Russian agricultural research institutes for implementing the proposed approach in the various soil-climatic zones of the Russian Federation.

Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2018;44(6):582-585
pages 582-585 views