The Cross-Impact Analysis of Innovative Projects in a Portfolio
- Authors: Topka V.V.1
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Affiliations:
- Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
- Issue: Vol 58, No 5 (2019)
- Pages: 736-746
- Section: Systems Analysis and Operations Research
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1064-2307/article/view/220482
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064230719050149
- ID: 220482
Cite item
Abstract
Interactions between pairs of projects inside the constructed portfolio are considered. These interrelations can be technological, resource, probabilistic, budgetary, etc. The binary probabilistic cross-impact of projects within the portfolio leads to a synergetic outcome: joint implementation of two or more projects can strengthen (or weaken) their resulting effect. The approach to the analysis of such interrelations, their cross-impact (the analysis of mutual influences) is presented in the form of a logistic model. In these conditions, the problem of finding the joint probabilities of the successful technical implementation of innovative projects inside a portfolio sensitive to perturbations of the initial data that are known with a certain error is formulated. The regularized Newton method corresponding to the specificity is used for its solution.
About the authors
V. V. Topka
Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
Author for correspondence.
Email: Topka3@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 117997