Ultra-low risk assessment under the confirmed compliance of automatic aircraft landing characteristics with airworthiness requirements

Abstract

Two techniques for approximating the tails of the probability distribution of automatic aircraft landing characteristics are considered: an approximation technique based on the Pareto distribution and a spline approximation technique. Computational algorithms designed based on these techniques allow assessing ultra-low risks (on the order of 10^–6–10^–8) under the confirmed compliance of aircraft landing characteristics with airworthiness requirements. The modeling shows good agreement between the results obtained by these techniques, which makes it possible to implement a simpler technique based on the Pareto distribution. This technique reduces the amount of statistical modeling by predicting accuracy characteristics in the unobservable range of their variation.