Uncertainties in estimates of the impact of recent climate variations on groundwater

Abstract

Objective and subjective uncertainties in modern estimates of the impact of long-term climate variations on the subsurface runoff and groundwater reserves are discussed. It is shown that the assessment of groundwater reserves should take into consideration the insufficient reliability of the main hydrogeological parameters and estimates of their likely changes. Therefore, the prediction of the influence of climate changes on groundwater reserves and its regime is now impossible. The mechanism of the natural floral damping of possible changes in the groundwater replenishment and temperature–moisture regime of large regions determined by climate changes due to the growing greenhouse gas concentration in the troposphere is described for the first time.