Conditions for the Appearance and Short-Time Prediction of Strong Squalls and Tornadoes in the European Part of Russia

Abstract

Conditions for the occurrence and the possibility of a short-term prediction of strong squalls, as well as several tornadoes (mainly, weak), which caused major damage in the European part of Russia May 30, 2018, are considered. The information on the squalls is gathered from the data from the network of weather stations. In addition, data about cases of tornadoes are refined, in particular, based on the analysis of windthrows caused by them in forested regions. Synoptic and aerologic prerequisites for the appearance of squalls are considered. Squalls are modeled using the WRF model (version 3.9.1.1, the grid step is 3 km). Predicted data of the GFS and ECMWF global atmospheric models (from the ERA-5 archive) have been obtained as initial conditions. It has been established that squalls are comparatively successfully reproduced by the model.