Vol 88, No 4 (2018)

The current state of the flow of goods is analyzed, and its growth in implementing China’s new One Belt One Road geoeconomic strategy, targeted at the revival of the Silk Road in the 21st century, is forecast. To this end, regression equations are used, describing exports and imports in China–EU and Russia–China mutual trade, as well as the gravity equation of J. Tinbergen, who in the early 1930s was the first to apply mathematical methods to macroeconomic problems. On the basis of the equations sought, models of the long-term forecasting of the dynamics in China–EU and Russia–EU mutual trade and the economic development of these countries have been constructed. It is shown that the best strategy for Russia is to restore and intensify trade and economic relations with the European Union under the activation of trade and economic cooperation with China and other APEC countries.

The authors analyzed events related to the largest nuclear accident in the history of the Soviet Navy, which occurred on the nuclear submarine K-431 on August 10, 1985, during scheduled operations at a dockyard in Chazhma Bay near Vladivostok. For reasons of security, the aftermath of these events remained unknown to a wide circle of specialists and public for over 30 years, prompting ambiguous interpretations and conjectures. This article describes the findings, including the collection, generalization, and systematization of surviving incomplete and limited data; numerical and model calculations; and the analysis of the accident’s causes and development. The radioactive and radioecological consequences, rehabilitation measures, and the disposal of the formed radioactive waste and the damaged nuclear submarine are considered. The consequences of the radioactive release into the Sea of Japan, the cloud traveling to the north along the Russian–Chinese border, and the transborder transfer of radioactive substances for the populations of the neighboring countries are evaluated for the first time.

The current state of research in operational oceanography in leading countries of the world and the prospects of this trend in Russia, as well as ways to intensify it, are analyzed. The history of the formation of the fundamentals and principles of operational monitoring of the ocean in the Soviet Union in the 1970s‒1980s is considered, and the leadership of Soviet oceanologists in this process is shown. The development of the system of the operational monitoring of the ocean and its seas, as well as the main operational marine forecast systems, is reviewed. The structure of the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center, which was created under the RAS Marine Hydrophysical Institute in accordance with European standards, is discussed in detail, and prospects to develop domestic marine forecast systems are discussed.

Applied aspects of the notion of probability and the meaning read into it by researchers from various fields of science are discussed. The frequentist (objectivist) and subjectivist approaches are considered, and uncertainties and difficulties of the interpretation of the notion in applied sciences and real life are discussed. The main conclusion is that there are no grounds to contrast the subjectivist and frequentist approaches or to consider either of them more fruitful. Both are useful in solving practical problems and their rational application.

Interrelationships between microbes and the human organism have turned out to be not as simple as had been expected. This perception is evidenced by the long dispute between I.I. Mechnikov and R. Koch about the physiological mechanisms of host protection: the cellular component or humoral factors? Although this discussion is filed as history and the Nobel Prize was divided between these scientists for the creation of the cellular–humoral theory of immunity at the beginning of the 20th century, science has unveiled new riddles of Nature that may be called adaptive strategies of the “host–parasite” interrelationship. The driving forces of the infection process are considered: the agent of disease (microbe) and the host organism (humans, animals), i.e., the platform on which the disease progresses and the external environment (ecological factor) that changes the arrangement of participants in this interrelationship, and consequently, the outcome of the infection. This article shows examples and discusses the meanings of adaptive strategies for specific participants in the above process. The meaning of the persistent potential of microbes (both “self” and “nonself”) in interrelationships with the host is reflected. Applied aspects of the population organization and communication–related trend in microbiology and medicine are shown. New data are presented about the physiology of the key microbial regulator of homeostasis of the human intestinal biotope, the Bifidobacterium flora, or bifid flora, the main “conductor” of our health and a key figure among health-saving technologies under development.

This article familiarizes the reader with the biography of an outstanding American physicist, Nobel Prizewinner Richard Feynman, famous for his works on quantum field theory, quantum electrodynamics, particle physics, statistical physics, superconductivity, and gravity theory, as well as for his unique contribution to the teaching and popularization of physics.