The Mathematical Dimension of the One Belt One Road Megaproject

Abstract

The current state of the flow of goods is analyzed, and its growth in implementing China’s new One Belt One Road geoeconomic strategy, targeted at the revival of the Silk Road in the 21st century, is forecast. To this end, regression equations are used, describing exports and imports in China–EU and Russia–China mutual trade, as well as the gravity equation of J. Tinbergen, who in the early 1930s was the first to apply mathematical methods to macroeconomic problems. On the basis of the equations sought, models of the long-term forecasting of the dynamics in China–EU and Russia–EU mutual trade and the economic development of these countries have been constructed. It is shown that the best strategy for Russia is to restore and intensify trade and economic relations with the European Union under the activation of trade and economic cooperation with China and other APEC countries.