A counterfactual challenge of the past: Ways of negotiation

Abstract

The question about the influence of unrealized options of the past on the present is considered. In this context, the notion counterfactual challenge of the past is formulated. By the example of two stably reproduced alternative scenarios (the surrender of Leningrad in the years of the Great Patriotic War and the autonomous existence of “the Island of Crimea” in 1920–1970), the author shows the necessity to respond to such challenges using scientific assessments and public consultation on the propriety of one scenario or another. Long-term negative consequences of ignoring such challenges and methods to neutralize them are shown.