Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Аннотация

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M_w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M_w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M_w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M_w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M_w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M_w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M_w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.