The Evolution of Future Science: from the Art of Prediction to Sustainability Science
- 作者: Knyazeva E.N.1
-
隶属关系:
- Higher School of Economics
- 期: 卷 35, 编号 4 (2024)
- 页面: 62-80
- 栏目: Scientific research
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0236-2007/article/view/263534
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0236200724040046
- ID: 263534
开放存取
##reader.subscriptionAccessGranted##
详细
The article shows how methods for studying the future developed, starting from ancient times, when seers and oracles were revered, through utopias, conjectures and projects of the future in the era of modern times and the Enlightenment, to the emergence and development of the modern Futures Studies and Foresight proper, starting from the middle of the 20th century to the present day. The instruments of futures studies have evolved from individually nuanced techniques and the art of guessing the future to science-based methods for assessing possible, multiple and preferable futures. The fundamental differences between prognostic science and foresight are revealed. While prognostic science deals with foreseeing the most likely and unambiguous future, foresight is based on methods of scenario planning and roadmaps building for strategic management and achieving preferred images of the future. Modern foresight instruments are based on their understanding of the fundamental openness of the future, the existence of development alternatives and the construction of scenarios for future development. The most promising and proven in practice basis for futures research and foresight is the modern science of complex systems, since it is on its basis that it is possible to recognize development trends, strategic vision of remote goals and develop methods for soft and effective management of complex technological and social systems. It is this that has become the evidence-based scientific foundation for the implementation of sustainable development goals and for creating sustainable futures.
全文:
作者简介
Elena Knyazeva
Higher School of Economics
编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: hknyazeva@hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2427-0884
Professor, School of Philosophy and Cultural Studies
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow参考
- Anthoni E., Van Leemput M., Schoffelen J. & Hannes K. Futures Studies. SAGE Research Methods Foundations. Ed. by Atkinson P.A., Delamont S., Williams R.A., Cernat A., Sakshaug J. L.: SAGE Publications Ltd., 2020.
- Bell W. Foundations of Future Studies. History, Purposes, and Knowledge Human Science for a New Era. Vol. 1. New Brunswick, L.: Transaction Publishers, 2009.
- Bishop P., Hines A., Collins T. The Current State of Scenario Development: an Overview of Techniques. Foresight. 2007. Vol. 9, N 1. P. 5–25.
- Çifci, H., Yüksel, N. Foresight 6.0: The New Generation of Technology Foresight. 2018 IEEE International Conference on Engineering, Technology and Innovation (ICE/ITMC). 2018. P. 1–5.
- Conway M. Exploring the Links between Neuroscience and Foresight. Journal of Futures Studies. 2022. Vol. 26(4). P. 23–32.
- Dator J. Alternative Futures at the Manoa School. Journal of Futures Studies. 2009. N 14(2). P. 1–18.
- Demneh M.T., Zackery A. and Amir Nouraei A. Using corporate foresight to enhance strategic management practices. European Journal of Futures Research. 2023. N 11 (5). doi: 10.1186/s40309-023-00217-x.
- Floridi L., Strait A. Ethical Foresight Analysis: What it is and Why it is Needed? Minds & Machines. 2020. N 30. P. 77–97.
- Garud R., Kumaraswamy A. and Karnøe P. (2010) Path Dependence or Path Creation? Journal of Management Studies. Vol. 47, N 4. P. 760–774.
- Gidley J. M. The Future: The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017.
- Godet M. Strategic Foresight. La Prospective. Problems and Methods. 2006. Iss. 20. P.: Librairie des Arts et Métiers.
- Hines A., Bishop P. Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight. Washington: Social Technologies, 2007.
- Hines A. When Did It Start? Origin of the Foresight Field. World Futures Review. 2020. Vol. 12(1). P. 4–11.
- Martin B. R. The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider’s perspective. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 2010. N 77. P.1438–1447.
- Martin B.R., Irvine J. Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science. L., NY.: Pinter Publishers, 1989.
- Masini E. Why futures studies? L.: Grey Seal Books, 1993.
- Merton R.K. The unanticipated consequences of purposive social action, American Sociological Review. 1936. N 1. P. 894– 904.
- McKinnon Andrew M. Energy and society: Herbert Spencer’s “energetic sociology” of social evolution and beyond. Journal of Classical Sociology. 2010. Vol.10 (4). P. 439–455.
- Ollenburg S.A. A Futures-Design-Process Model for Participatory Futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 2019, N 23(4). P. 51–62.
- Dennis P. & Erlandsson L.-K.Ecopation: Connecting Sustainability, Glocalisation and Well-being, Journal of Occupational Science. 2014. Vol. 21, N 1. P. 12–24.
- Sardar Z., Sweeney J. A. The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times. Futures. 2016. N 75. P. 1–13.
- Saritas O., Burmaoglu S., Ozdemir D. The Evolution of Foresight: What Evidence is There in Scientific Publications? Futures. 2022. Vol. 137. P. 102916.
- Sterman J.S. Sustaining Sustainability: Creating a Systems Science in a Fragmented Academy and Polarized World. Sustainability Science: The Emerging Paradigm and the Urban Environment. Ed. by M.P. Weinstein and R.E. Turner. New York, NY: Springer, 2012.
- Ukaga O., Maser C., Reichenbach M. (ed.). Sustainable development: Principles, Frameworks, and Case Studies. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2010.
