Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Access granted  Restricted Access Subscription Access

No 7 (121) (2023)

Cover Page

Full Issue

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Articles

EU trade with China: the problem of scarcity

Butorina O.V.

Abstract

For many years, the European Union had run sizable deficits in its trade with China, before it increased up to almost 400 billion euros in 2022. This article has a twofold objective. First, it analyses the dynamics of EU balance of trade deficit with China relying on data by UNCTADstat in US dollars. Second, it investigates the reasons of its persistence and a sharp boost in 2022. The results suggest that the ratio of EU deficit to its imports from China declined from up to 70% between 2000 and 2008 to nearly 50% in the 2010-th thanks to the higher rates of European exports to China compared with its imports. Nevertheless, Germany alone continued to account for ½ of EU exports to China. A large group of EU Member States improved their overall trade balances in the 2010-th but showed little progress in doing so in their trade with China. In dollar terms, EU exports of manufactured goods to China fell by 7% in 2022 that was in line with the total drop of China’s imports. By comparing China’s total imports of machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7) with its imports from the EU we find that European exporters have come under less pressure from contracting Chinese import demand than producers from other regions. Altogether, the sharp rise of EU deficit in its trade with China in 2022 occurred due to the declining domestic demand in China and its shift from investment to private consumption. The notion that the overall state of the business environment in China constrains EU exports needs more accurate empirical verification, since from 2000 to 2020 European merchandise exports to China developed at a much higher rate than to the rest of the world.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):5-20
pages 5-20 views

The model of interaction of the European Union with partner countries: Swiss experience

Babynina L.O.

Abstract

Over the past decades, the European Union has formed several formats of integration with the third countries, which are considered as forms for external differentiation. The EU seeks to streamline relations with partners by linking access to its internal market with obligations to dynamically adapt their national legislation to EU norms and rules. These actions can be viewed through various theoretical frameworks: Europeanization, differentiation, institutionalism, external management and others. The purpose of the article was to study the peculiarities of relations between Switzerland and the EU at the present stage, due to the Alpine republic’s refusal of the draft bilateral Institutional Agreement, which assumed the deepening of the institutional structure and greater automation in the implementation of EU law into the national law of the Swiss Confederation. The country's leadership's refusal to ratify the agreement confirms that the idea of preserving national sovereignty and the principle of direct democracy for Switzerland turned out to be more important than the economic benefits of deepening integration with the EU. Thus, taking into account the experience of the United Kingdom, not each of the EU's close partners is ready to sacrifice their national powers in exchange for benefits from deeper access to the EU market. This happens largely due to the internal traditions and economic potential of the partner states.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):21-34
pages 21-34 views

Europe in search of new foreign policy strategies: German, French and British think tanks' approaches

Timofeev P.P., Kharitonova E.M., Khorolskaya M.V.

Abstract

The article focuses on the positions and assessments of the current international political situation presented in the think tanks' policy papers in three European states: the United Kingdom, France and Germany. The relevance of the article stems from the new geopolitical reality, that puts pressure not only on national governments, but also on the analytical and expert community and urges them to reassess their views on their countries' foreign policy, come up with new ideas and put forward updated visions of strategic priorities. The authors apply comparative analysis. The article uses specially selected key policy documents of the centers as well as the speeches and articles by the leaders of the think tanks published in 2022 and 2023. It examines and compares expert positions regarding the continued support to Ukraine, interaction with Russia, their views on the EU role in the changing global environment, relationships with the US, China and the Global South. The article identifies common themes and discrepancies between the positions, as well as key ideas and envisioned scenarios of the future developments. Basing on the analysed materials, the authors come to a conclusion that while political leaders make statements about European unity, the publications of the think tanks reveal substantial discrepancies on many concrete issues. European experts share common vision regarding the assessment of the ongoing shifts, agree that the world today is undergoing transformation and fragmentation, highlighting the Ukrainian crisis as a watershed event in the EU foreign policy development. However, British, German and French think tanks have different views on the ways forward in response to the emerging challenges.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):35-48
pages 35-48 views

Methods of improving the competitiveness of eu space activities

Entina E.G.

Abstract

In 2022-2023 The European Union and its Member States have set themselves the task of taking advantage of the benefits of global regulatory leadership to form a qualitatively new regulation for the exploration and use of outer space and celestial bodies, primarily for commercial purposes, which would turn into a common international standard regulating space activities. Relying on legal instruments, systematic institution-building and enforcement oversight it strives for, the EU expects to overcome its accumulated technological gap, restore its companies to high international competitiveness and establish itself as a global space player of the first magnitude. Based on the generalization of a large array of the latest regulations, program and strategic documents adopted and prepared by the EU, the author analyzes what has already been done to solve this problem, what is being done for the future.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):49-63
pages 49-63 views

Dynamics of the political situation in the V4 countries against the background of the special military operation

Shishelina L.N.

Abstract

This article continues the analysis of the political situation in the Visegrad Group countries against the background of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine started in 2022 (Contemporary Europe, no. 7, 2022). The situational analysis of 2023 is based on a large database of statistical data, reports from leading analytical centers and articles by experts in the region. The study suggests that the SMO and its consequences, including sanctions, significantly affected not only the socio-economic and political situation and the results of elections in three countries in the region in 2023. In January 2023 the citizens of the Czech Republic for the first time elected an army general as president, which could be a reflection of the desire for greater security. The political crisis that began in 2018 in Slovakia, has been solved by the new election of the leader of the SMER - Social Democracy party Robert Fico. This could be a reflection of the society's desire for stability, which before the crisis was associated with Fico’s activities to defend the national interests. In Poland the Law and Justice party is no longer in power. The turn to the opposition symbolizes a certain fatigue from the principles that are associated with the past. Some new trends have emerged in the political field of the region, indicating a desire for stabilization.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):64-75
pages 64-75 views

Emerging and recurrent problems in Hungary and Poland's conflicts with brussels

Rusakova M.Y.

Abstract

The article analyses the development of the conflict between Brussels, on the one side, and Poland and Hungary, on the other side, in 2023. The causes and consequences of the emergence of new problems, as well as the existing ongoing proceedings on the rule of law are considered. The contradictory process of this confrontation is not new to the European agenda, but every year the number of pan-European projects and initiatives vetoed by Warsaw and Budapest increases with the aim of persuading Brussels to make concessions on certain issues and mitigate the effect of imposed financial penalties, which the EU is also using more actively to force the two countries to follow in the wake of common political rules. The events in Ukraine, as well as the global agenda, very often directly affect relations within the EU, giving Poland and Hungary more room for maneuver in defending their identity and their own vision of the future of European integration. It is concluded that at this stage the confrontation has intensified and led to decisive measures on both sides. Despite this, the parties, as before, are doomed to seek compromises and negotiate.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):76-85
pages 76-85 views

Czech-Taiwan relations: a turn to the east?

Vedernikov M.V.

Abstract

The article examines the dynamics of Czech-Taiwan relations at the present stage. Since the early 1990s. Prague began to pay close attention to a partially recognised state in its foreign policy. The interest was caused by the special status of the island and the similarity of its position, according to President V. Havel, with socialist Czechoslovakia. The key periods in the history of relations between Prague and Taipei are outlined: the phases of active interaction were replaced by stages of decreasing cooperation. It is emphasised that since 2022, after the liberal-democratic coalition came to power, the Taiwanese track of Czech diplomacy has become its core direction. Czech politicians revived Havel's value policy, but abandoned the personal factor in advancing the agenda, focusing on a whole-government approach.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):86-97
pages 86-97 views

Freedom of navigation in the Baltic (risks and challenges for the Russian Federation)

Gudev P.A.

Abstract

The Baltic Sea is an extremely important maritime region for Russia from the point of view of the realisation of interests in the field of maritime transportation. The Baltic Fleet bases are also located there. Civil vessels and warships of the Russian Federation enjoy here the relevant rights granted to them under international maritime law, and above all, the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The paper shows how some Baltic countries interpret its norms and provisions quite broadly in favor of their national interests in the field of national security. Special concerns, on their part, are raised with regard to various types of naval activities within their exclusive economic zones, where freedom of navigation must be respected. This right is now valid in the waters of the Viro Strait, as part of the Gulf of Finland. Recent statements by some countries about the need to tighten the shipping regime cannot lead to its closure. The study focuses on the legal status of the Baltic Straits. The analysis shows that the order of passage through them may differ fundamentally in peacetime and during international armed conflict. The article highlights the position of non-regional countries, primarily the United States, on freedom of navigation in the Baltic. The research reveals that this position does not always contradict Russia's interests, even in the conditions of the existing confrontation.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):98-110
pages 98-110 views

German-Chinese economic relations in the context of current geopolitical challenges

Belov V.B.

Abstract

In July 2023, Germany adopted a long-expected strategy towards China, its most important (along with the United States) non-European partner. One of the main places in the document is dedicated to the economic and political sphere - foreign trade and direct investment. The ruling coalition has set the task of reducing the dependence of the German economic space from the Chinese economy, which coincides with the strategic goal of the European Union. The U.S. administration is also interested in weakening cooperation between Germany and the EU with China. However, this approach of national, European and American politicians contradicts the market interests of German business, which remains focused on comprehensive interaction with companies in China. The author analyzes the current state of German-Chinese economic cooperation and assesses the prospects for its development in the context of current geopolitical challenges.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):111-126
pages 111-126 views

Convergence of the welfare of EU countries in the context of integration: hypothesis testing

Kondratieva N.B.

Abstract

The article analyses intercountry imbalances of socio-economic development in the European Union. The subject of the study is to check the validity of the hypothesis of convergence (rapprochment of levels) of development in the conditions of integration. Methods applied include graphical visualisation of data and statistical calculations using the compound interest formula transformed for the purpose of clarifying the hypothesis. The proposed method makes it possible to increase the predictive value of the study. The graph shows a stable gap between the catching-up countries and the average level of EU welfare (GDP per capita), with an insignificant reduction during periods of crisis. The number of years required for catching-up countries to pull up to the average level is calculated, taking into account the real growth rates of well-being in the period 2004-2022. The average convergence period exceeds 25 years, which proves its low probability. Most of the catching-up countries are unable to reach the average level of EU welfare in the foreseeable future, even with a hypothetical additional withdrawal of financial development assistance from the EU budget by an amount equivalent to one or two percent of national GDP per capita.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):127-138
pages 127-138 views

The role of small and medium enterprises in the development of high-tech production in the european union

Roginko S.A., Abanina I.N., Ogloblina E.V.

Abstract

The article studies high-tech SME sector in the European Union with the aim to trace its dynamics over the period of macroeconomic instability (from 2008 to 2023) and to rank EU Member States by theeconomic progress of their high-tech SME sector. Scholars have written much about SMEs and their role in national economies. What they have largely disregarded so far is the SMEs’ contribution to the high-tech industries. In this paper with the help of qualitative methods we shed light on the relationship between the high-tech SME sector size and the dynamics of its key variables: number of enterprises and employees, added value and productivity. We have developed a composite index of SMEs’ contribution to the economic development of high-tech industries and calculated it both for the whole EU and for its Member States. The proposed index has at least two useful qualities: it is easily calculated and it allows to employ public statistics data. This article finds that the sector of European SMEs in industries with above-average technological intensity surpasses by its scale and growth rates the similar sector in industries with high technological intensity. However, the latter demonstrates higher resilience in the times of economic instability.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):139-152
pages 139-152 views

EU interests in Northern Europe and the Arctic: challenges for Russia

Plyusnin R.M., Skripka I.R., Lesnoy D.S.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the consideration of the interests of the European Union in the Arctic and Northern Europe from the point of view of threats to the security of the Russian Federation. The military sphere remains outside the scope of this study. As the main source of information about potential threats, the authors considered the EU Arctic strategy as a whole, and similar documents of individual Nordic countries. In addition, the statements of local politicians and public figures were analysed, as well as the real actions carried out by the leadership of these states and territories in relation to Russia. It was concluded that the interests of the European Union in the Arctic and Northern Europe do not pose any serious threat to Russia's security outside the military sphere. Most of the methods of pressure on our country have already been used, and further actions will potentially have a greater negative impact not on Russia, but on those states and territories of the region that will undertake them. Nevertheless, the spread and recognition at the world level of European standards and requirements in the field of nature protection, mining and green energy can lead to troubles for the Russian economy. In addition, there are risks in case of imposing sanctions by the Faroe Islands and of Norway's blockade of the Svalbard archipelago.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):153-164
pages 153-164 views

UK-Japan strategic partnership in defence and security

Nikiporets-takigawa G.Y.

Abstract

Since the beginning of its post-war history, Japan has been at a crossroads of identities, sharing and promoting the values of the Western world in Asia and relying on Western partners, primarily the US and the UK, to ensure Japanese national security. Britain is also showing interest in military-political cooperation with Japan as both countries were linked by a defense alliance at the beginning of the XX century. The paper explores the leading factors using comparative analysis of strategic documents and initiatives in both countries aimed at defense and security cooperation. The author addresses the prospects for this cooperation based on the analysis of the correlation of the selected factors in the paradigmatic framework of neoclassical realism. The main factors of the development of strategic UK-Japan relations in the field of defense and security in the recent period are identified as the “US factor”, since the US is the main strategic partner for both Japan and Britain. Moreover, the “China factor” is analyzed, as Beijing’s activity creates, in the opinion of US allies, risks to their security. An ambivalent impact on the current state of the partnership and its prospects is revealed due to the conflict of approaches that explain the choice of partners in defense and security. Since the “value” approach contradicts the realist and geopolitical approach, due to the difference in perception of security threats caused, in particular, by geography.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):165-175
pages 165-175 views

Social inequality: the modern risc society

Lunkin R.N.

Abstract

The article analyzes the problem of social inequality in modern society on the example of the countries of the European Union. The main challenges of social transformations are considered using the concept of risk society. The possession of one or another type of capital in the social field (mostly related to talents and skills) generates differences and, ultimately, existential inequality, when some people have the opportunity to live in an inclusive society, while others do not. In this regard, modern states face the question of what new challenges are created by the previous forms of social inequality in the context of technological shifts. It is concluded that the combination of new and old inequalities with technological transition has led to the emergence of a new risk associated with what can be called civil exclusion by analogy with social exclusion. This risk is associated partially with the displacement of a part of society from the production of a common goods or products. The main challenge of modern society has become the formation of a deeply divided society, where citizens differ not only in terms of income, but also in their skills, abilities, opportunities for self-realization in professional, creative, technological senses. Civil rejection also leads to the correction of democratic mechanisms, within which those dissatisfied with the new way of life are marginalized.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):176-191
pages 176-191 views

Approaches to inequality in eu social policy

Kolesov D.I.

Abstract

The article examines existing approaches to inequality in social policy at the present stage of development of the European social model. The study focuses on the differences between vertical and horizontal, or group, inequality, inequality of opportunities and outcomes, compensation policy and social investment, as well as the representation of different groups as objects of policy. Approaches to understanding inequality are considered using the example of the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound) and the European Social Fund Plus. It is concluded that at the present stage, European social policy pays a lot of attention to group inequality, the problem of inclusion of various vulnerable groups and countering social exclusion. By combating horizontal inequality, the European Union is trying to solve a number of problems, including unemployment, poverty, professional and economic stratification and disappointment in European integration. The focus on horizontal inequality leads to an increasing construction of vulnerable groups within the framework of social policy, and therefore to differences in their representation in the social and research programs of the European Union, and the focus on inclusion in the labor market raises the issue of ignoring groups that are unable to contribute to building of Social Europe.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):192-204
pages 192-204 views

A.A. Gromyko and security policy: contours of Helsinki

Sindeev A.A.

Abstract

The article continues the study of the role of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR A.A. Gromyko in the formation, development and maintenance of security policy, its principles and structural elements. The relevance of the article is determined by the importance of strategy and strategic thinking in modern foreign policy and diplomacy, their influence on interstate cooperation, the evolution and manageability of international relations. The subject of the article is to study the participation of A.A. Gromyko in preparation for the conference on security and cooperation in Europe in 1972-1973. This circumstance determined the chronological framework of the study. They are limited to 1972 and 1973. In some cases, the author uses materials from 1974 and 1975. The article consists of three subsections. The first subsection deals with discussions about the timing of the conference and the creation of organizational structures necessary to ensure its successful functioning. The second subsection analyzes the «red lines» of A.A. Gromyko - the conditions that must be met for the participation of the USSR in the conference. The third subsection characterizes the approach of A.A. Gromyko, aimed at overcoming potential conflicts and preventing the expanded interpretation of security advocated by Western countries. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the analysis of the approach of A.A. Gromyko about the relationship between the concepts of «peaceful existence», «independent elements of detente», «sovereignty» and their inclusion in the substance of European security. The author confirmed his earlier hypothesis that A.A. Gromyko of plan «B» in case the conference on security and cooperation is postponed. The sources of the article are published documents of the Foreign Office of the Federal Republic of Germany, the use of which can be explained methodologically. It was important for the author to conduct the analysis on the basis of the foreign partners' assessment of the statements made by the Soviet Foreign Minister during official negotiations (outer reflection). The author's reasoning should be understood in the context of his earlier article in the journal.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):205-214
pages 205-214 views

Italian military presence in the Adriatic-Ionian macroregion

Eremin D.P.

Abstract

The article examines the military presence of Italy in the Greater Mediterranean and the Adriatic-Ionian macroregion as its part. Within the framework of the Yalta-Potsdam system, Italy refrained from deploying its armed forces abroad, but the situation at the end of the XX century has changed. The article scrutinises the main factors that have caused Italy's interest in expanding its military presence in the Mediterranean, such as the need to strengthen its own positions within the EU, the migration issue, the need for energy resources, and the development of infrastructure projects. Limited material resources, as well as membership in the EU and NATO, determined the nature of the regional activity of the Italian forces: Italy in most cases does not conduct its own large operations. Rome commits to international missions thus protects its own interests, fulfills its international obligations to the EU and NATO, and demonstrates its value as a member of the international community. Nevertheless, Italy's integration into the EU and NATO also imposes certain limitations on Rome's ability to pursue an independent foreign policy and consistently defend its own national interests in the region: events in Libya in 2011 evidenced that Italy had to adapt.
Sovremennaâ Evropa. 2023;(7 (121)):215-224
pages 215-224 views

This website uses cookies

You consent to our cookies if you continue to use our website.

About Cookies