Genesis of the Foreign Trade Resilience between European Countries and Countries of Africa and the Middle East in the Period of 2010-2024

The authors attempt to identify the genesis of foreign trade resistance between European countries and countries in Africa and the Middle East between 2010 and 2024. To achieve this goal, the first task was to identify not only viable pairs of mutual trade between the countries of the designated regions, but also to identify those that are significant enough for further analysis. That is, the share of this mutual trade in the exports or imports of at least one of the countries under consideration should be at least 1% for the entire selected period of time. Next, the resulting trading pairs were grouped based on the commodity structure in it at the beginning and at the end of the time period under consideration. As a result, 16 groups of resistant foreign trade pairs were identified, which in turn were combined into 3 large consolidated groups. An analysis of the results showed that trade with Europe is more important for the countries of Africa and the Middle East. In both cases, only a small group of regional countries are involved in this trade. At the same time, its nature remains predominantly postcolonial, when mainly low-grade goods and raw materials are transported to Europe, and high- and medium-grade goods are exported in the opposite direction. Positive shifts in this trend are observed, but only in 8 trading pairs out of 111 with a low or commodity level of specialization.

Resilience, factors of resilience, foreign trade, Africa, Middle East, Europe, commodity structure of foreign trade