Power Index Values for Eurosceptic Groups in the European Parliament

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Abstract

The dissent among right Eurosceptics during the first dozen months of the 10th European Parliament’s (EP) activity is a phenomenon widely spread ahead of the President of the EP re-election. Using quantitative methods, the article explains why ideologically aligned MEPs prefer to vote differently. The author using seats distribution and special index measured roles played by Eurosceptic and rival factions. Analogous indicators are calculated for different hypothetical right Eurosceptic coalitions, and the potential benefits of unification are compared with the current situation. The interdisciplinary synthesis of mathematical and political science tools was used to identify the Deegan-Packel power index as the most suitable instrument for the stated objectives. Being the first to apply this methodology, the author identifies numerous advantages in the contemporary configuration for right Eurosceptic MEPs. Calculations have shown that changing the current situation is advantageous for selfish reasons (to enlarge their faction), but disadvantageous in terms of their rivals’ potential: by uniting, EU critics would strengthen socialists, “The Left”, “The Greens”, or liberals, thus making them indispensable partners and therefore in-demand for Euro-enthusiasts. Probably the right-wing Eurosceptics’ refusal to formalize their cooperation stems from a reluctance to reinforce competitors having opposite ideological positions.

About the authors

A. O. Domanov

Institute of Europe RAS

Email: mercury0607@yandex.ru
Research Fellow, Department of European Integration Research Moscow, Russia

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