Hazards resulting from hydrological extremes in the upstream catchment of the Prut River

Аннотация

Taking into account the fact that during the last decades domestic readers were poorly familiar with the hydrology of this region, it was considered appropriate to study the extreme situations within the Prut basin. By means of very simple mathematical calculation we have highlighted the role of reservoirs in change of relationships between extreme rainfall and floods/droughts, estimate the confidence degree of these estimations, etc. The Prut watershed is characterized by a temperate-continental climate with excessive influences in the middle and lower parts. Probabilistic analysis of the annual maximum flow indicates high values in the summer. The high flows recorded in 2005, 2008, and 2010 were caused by the most serious floods for the last 35 years. The maximum flow values had an exceeding probability of 2–10%, which explained the frequency of the phenomenon. Only the historical value (4240 m³ s^–1) at Radauti-Prut exceeded the flow rate with 1% probability. The results obtained for the hydrometric station located downstream underlined the role of Stanca–Costesti Accumulation Lake in flood protection. Simple linear regression identified the strength of the relationship between the predictor variable (total monthly rainfall) and the criterion variable (average monthly flow). The indicator used in this study to highlight the size effect, R² (the regression coefficient), is based on the degree of association between variables and describes the percentage of variability explained by each variable in relation to the other. The results indicated a large effect size at the Radauti–Prut station that decreased gradually downstream, as a result of the flow regularization function played by the reservoir. The minimum flow study revealed 7 consecutive years with drought, from 1982–1988. In the current period, the extremely severe drought began in the late autumn of 2011 and was maintained at the end of the winter, summer, and autumn of 2012.