An Empirical Model for Estimating the Velocities and Delays
of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

N. S. Shlyk; Шлык Н. С.; A. V. Belov; Белов А. В.; M. A. Abunina; Абунина М. А.; A. A. Abunin; Абунин А. А.

doi:10.31857/S0016794023600175

An Empirical Model for Estimating the Velocities and Delays of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

Authors: Shlyk N.S.¹, Belov A.V.¹, Abunina M.A.¹, Abunin A.A.¹
Affiliations:
1. Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences (IZMIRAN)
Issue: Vol 63, No 5 (2023)
Pages: 599-608
Section: Articles
URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0016-7940/article/view/134749
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0016794023600175
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/GRVODM
ID: 134749

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Abstract

We studied the behavior of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection velocity as a function of the
source heliolongitude (associated solar flare), initial ejection velocity, and background solar wind velocity.
The modeling is based on data on 364 ejections of solar matter accompanied by flares observed in the
SOHO/LASCO coronograph, whose interplanetary analogues were subsequently recorded near the Earth in
the period from 1995 to 2021. A model is described that makes it possible to estimate the transit and maximum
velocities of the corresponding interplanetary disturbance, as well as the time of its arrival to the Earth. The
average absolute error in estimating the propagation time of interplanetary coronal mass ejections for the considered
364 events is 11.5 h, and the average relative error is 16.5%.

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