Email this article Variability of Extreme Air Temperatures and Precipitation in Different Natural Zones in Late XX and Early XXI Centuries According to ERA5 Reanalysis Data
- Authors: Zheleznova I.V.1, Gushchina D.Y.1
-
Affiliations:
- Lomonosov Moscow State University
- Issue: Vol 59, No 5 (2023)
- Pages: 549-559
- Section: Articles
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0002-3515/article/view/140360
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0002351523050139
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/ANDMWR
- ID: 140360
Cite item
Open Access
Access granted
Subscription Access
Abstract
Global temperature rise on the planet is accompanied by an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, which can lead to significant disturbances in plant metabolic processes and the functioning of plant communities. Depending on the type of vegetation and climatic conditions, the extent and nature of this impact can vary significantly. Therefore, the aim of this work was to identify areas with different types of plant communities that have been most affected by extreme temperatures and precipitation in recent decades. To identify regions with temperature and precipitation extremes, we estimated the frequency of exceeding a given threshold (less than 5% quantile or greater than 95% quantile) for selected theoretical probability density functions for the air temperature and precipitation series. The number of cases of exceeding the extreme threshold is calculated for the whole globe, their spatial and temporal variability in different seasons of the year and in the first decades of the XXI century compared to the end of the XX century is analysed. The regions with different types of plant communities with the most pronounced amplification of extreme temperature and precipitation regimes under changing climate conditions were identified.
About the authors
I. V. Zheleznova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Author for correspondence.
Email: ijeleznova@gmail.com
Russia, 119991, Moscow, Leninskie Gory, 1
D. Y. Gushchina
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Author for correspondence.
Email: dasha155@mail.ru
Russia, 119991, Moscow, Leninskie Gory, 1
References
- Beck H.E. et al. Present and future köppen-geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution // Sci. Data. 2018. V. 5. P. 1–12.
- Beer C. et al. Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: Global distribution and covariation with climate // Science (80-.) . 2010. V. 329. № 5993. P. 834–838.
- Frank D.C. et al. Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene // Nat. Clim. Chang. 2015. V. 5. № 6. P. 579–583.
- Frank J., Massey J. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Goodness of Fit // J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1951. V. 46. № 253. P. 68–78.
- Hansen J., Sato M., Ruedy R. Perception of climate change // Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 2012. V. 109. № 37.
- Hersbach H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis // Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2020. V. 146. № 730. P. 1999–2049.
- Lavers D.A. et al. An evaluation of ERA5 precipitation for climate monitoring // Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2022. V. 148. № 748. P. 3152–3165.
- Lei X. et al. How Well Does the ERA5 Reanalysis Capture the Extreme Climate Events Over China? Part I: Extreme Precipitation // Front. Environ. Sci. 2022. V. 10. № June. P. 1–14.
- Li L. et al. Responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to climate extremes in a semiarid grassland // Atmos. Environ. 2016. V. 142. P. 32–42.
- Mahecha M.D. et al. Global convergence in the temperature sensitivity of respiration at ecosystem level // Science (80-.) . 2010. V. 329. № 5993. P. 838–840.
- O’Gorman P.A. Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change // Curr. Clim. Chang. Reports. 2015. V. 1. № 2. P. 49–59.
- Parmesan C. et al. Chapter 2: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and their Services. 2022. P. 197–378.
- Peel M.C., Finlayson B.L., McMahon T.A. Updated world map of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification // Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Updat. 2007. V. 11. P. 1633–1644.
- Reichstein M. et al. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle // Nature. 2013. V. 500. № 7462. P. 287–295.
- Seneviratne S.I. et al. Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate // Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / под ред. V. Masson-Delmotte et al. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2021. P. 1513–1766.
- Shapiro S.S., Wilk M.B. An Analysis of Variance Test for Normality (Complete Samples) // Biometrika. 1965. V. 52. № 3/4. P. 591–611.
- Smith M.D. The ecological role of climate extremes: Current understanding and future prospects // J. Ecol. 2011. V. 99. № 3. P. 651–655.
- Tabari H. Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability // Sci. Rep. 2020. V. 10. № 1. P. 1–10.
- Weibull W. A Statistical Distribution Function of Wide Applicability // J. Appl. Mech. 1951. V. 103. P. 293–297.
- Xu W. et al. How Well Does the ERA5 Reanalysis Capture the Extreme Climate Events Over China? Part II: Extreme Temperature // Front. Environ. Sci. 2022. V. 10. № June. P. 1–15.
- Zhao M., Running S.W. Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009 // Science (80-.) . 2010. V. 329. № 5994. P. 940–943.
- Zscheischler J. et al. Detection and attribution of large spatiotemporal extreme events in Earth observation data // Ecol. Inform. 2013. V. 15. P. 66–73.
- Zscheischler J. et al. A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production // Environ. Res. Lett. 2014a. V. 9. № 3.
- Zscheischler J. et al. Impact of large-scale climate extremes on biospheric carbon fluxes: An intercomparison based on MsTMIP data // Global Biogeochem. Cycles. 2014b. V. 28. № 6. P. 585–600.
- Zscheischler J. et al. Extreme events in gross primary production: A characterization across continents // Biogeosciences. 2014c. V. 11. № 11. P. 2909–2924.
Supplementary files
