Analytical Calculation of the Seismic Hazard Curve from the Source Zone

A number of specialized software packages have been now developed to calculate seismic hazard curves. Their algorithmic basis is based on the use of numerical methods. The key feature of such calculations is the discretization of the selected areas of seismic source zone (SSZ) — each zone is divided into finite elements, and each element has seismic activity proportional to its area. Besides, the values of earthquake magnitudes in the calculations also take a discrete set of values. Numerical methods certainly open upthe possibility of solving problems that cannot be described analytically, but they also introduce certain errors. Too large a division may not take into account local features of the seismic regime. The accuracy of the final results depends significantly on two key parameters: the selected magnitude discretization step and the principles of dividing the SSZ zones. In this study, weconsider a localized seismic source whose event flow strictly corresponds to the GutenbergRichter law. To determine the intensity of seismic vibrations, the Shebalin macroseismic field equation is used.

seismic hazard, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, earthquake, aftershocks, seismic impact intensity, shaking recurrence, earthquake recurrence graph, seismic hazard curve, Gaussian distribution, Poisson distribution, error function, refinement of initial seismicity, Gutenberg–Richter law