On Methods of Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Based on Monitoring the Hydrogeodeformation Field

Аннотация

The permanent analysis of the hydrogeodeformation (HGD) field is one promising direction in the field of predicting strong earthquakes. As a result of long-term monitoring of the HGD field, it has been found that the underground hydrosphere contains extensive information about changes in geodynamic stresses and the evolution of deformation processes in the Earth’s crust. The development of short-term earthquake prediction methods has been preceded by long-term studies aimed at improving the HGD field monitoring. This paper presents examples of successful predictions of the place, time, and magnitude for a number of strong earthquakes. The examples are obtained based on a complex analysis of the variations in the HGD field. Proposals on the use of these methods for short-term prediction of strong seismic events in the near-real-time mode are formulated.