Long-Term Variability of UV Irradiance in the Moscow Region according to Measurement and Modeling Data


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We have found distinct long-period changes in erythemal UV radiation (Qer) characterized by a pronounced decrease at the end of the 1970s and a statistically significant positive trend of more than 5%/10 years since 1979 over the territory of the Moscow region according to the measurements and reconstruction model. The positive Qer trend is shown to be associated mainly with a decrease in the effective cloud amount and total ozone content (TOC). Due to these variations, UV resources have significantly changed in spring for the population with the most vulnerable skin type I, which means a transition from the UV optimum to UV moderate excess conditions. The simulation experiments using the INM-RSHU chemistry climate model (CCM) for several scenarios with and without anthropogenic factors have revealed that the variations in the anthropogenic emissions of halogens have the most significant impact on the variability of TOC and Qer. Among natural factors, noticeable effects are observed due to volcanic aerosol. The calculations of the cloud transmittance of Qer are generally consistent with the measurements; however, they do not reproduce the observed value of the positive trend.

作者简介

N. Chubarova

Moscow State University

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: natalia.chubarova@gmail.com
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, 119991

A. Pastukhova

Moscow State University

Email: natalia.chubarova@gmail.com
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, 119991

V. Galin

Institute of Numerical Mathematics

Email: natalia.chubarova@gmail.com
俄罗斯联邦, Moscow, 11999

S. Smyshlyaev

Russian State Hydrometeorological University

Email: natalia.chubarova@gmail.com
俄罗斯联邦, St. Petersburg, 195196

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