Estimating the impact of natural and technogenic factors on the incidence of malignant neoplasms in Altai krai

Abstract

Air pollution by industry and motor vehicles, the use of coal ash for the construction of residential and nonresidential buildings, and the presence of dead zones in the residential sector are the main factors of carcinogenic risk to human health. Natural factors (such as topography and prevailing wind directions) can weaken or strengthen technogenic factors. Based on the estimate of pollutant concentrations in the snow cover of Barnaul, we reveal residential areas that are located at the crossroads of atmospheric transport of carcinogenic substances and characterized by concentrations considerably exceeding the maximum allowable concentration. These areas are characterized by the integral accumulation of carcinogenic substances concurrently from multiple sources; for almost any wind rose, the impact of one of the pollution sources is observed throughout the year. The assessment of the carcinogenic risk for a territory depends much on the correlation between local topography and the height of apartments above ground level. Using cancer register data for Barnaul, we reveal an increased level of the incidence of malignant neoplasms in people living in high-rise buildings located in areas with a sharp change in topography (such as ledges, hills, and lowlands). This may occur due to stagnant zones and wind shadows; under certain correlation between topography and the height and shape of buildings, carcinogenic substances accumulate maximally.