Major predictive risk factors for а cytokine storm in COVID-19 patients (a retrospective clinical trials)
- Authors: Anisenkova A.Y.1,2, Apalko S.V.1, Asaulenko Z.P.1,3, Bogdanov A.N.1,2,4, Vologzhanin D.A.1, Garbuzov E.Y.1, Glotov O.S.1, Kamilova T.A.1, Klitsenko O.A.3, Minina E.M.1, Mosenko S.V.1, Khobotnikov D.N.1, Sсherbak S.G.1,2
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Affiliations:
- Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
- Saint-Petersburg State University
- North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov
- Military Medical Academy of S.M. Kirov
- Issue: Vol 12, No 1 (2021)
- Pages: 5-15
- Section: Original Study Articles
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/clinpractice/article/view/63552
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/clinpract63552
- ID: 63552
Cite item
Abstract
Background: According to WHO, as of March 31, 2021, 127 877 462 confirmed cases of the new COVID-19 coronavirus infection were registered in the world, including 2 796 561 deaths (WHO Coronavirus Disease). COVID-19 is characterized by a wide range of clinical manifestations, from asymptomatic to a rapid progression to severe and extremely severe. Predictive biomarkers for the early detection of high-risk individuals have become a matter of great medical urgency. Aims: Search for the predictors of a cytokine storm in patients with COVID-19 infection and creation of a risk scale of this complication for practical applications. Methods: The study included 458 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection with signs of viral lung lesions according to the computer tomography data. The patients were divided into 2 groups: those with a stable course of moderate severity (100 patients) and those with progressive moderate, severe and extremely severe course (358 patients). Results: It has been established that the main risk factors for the development of a cytokine storm in COVID-19 patients are the following: interleukin-6 concentration >23 pg/ ml, dynamics of the index on the NEWS scale ≥0, ferritin concentration >485 ng/ml, D-dimer concentration >2.1, C-reactive protein concentration >50 mg/l, number of lymphocytes in the blood <0.72×109/l, age ≥40 years. The cytokine storm incidence correlates with an increase in the number of risk factors. For the practical testing the scale was applied in 3 groups. In patients of the first group (0–1 factor) almost no cytokine storm risk was found, in the second group (2 -3 factors) the probability of the storm was 55% (increase by 35.5 times), in the third group (≥4 risk factors) it reached 96% (increase by 718 times). Conclusion: The diagnostic and monitoring criteria of a cytokine storm have been established in patients with COVID-19 infection. The developed prognostic scale allows identification of patients at high risk of developing a cytokine storm so that early anti-inflammatory therapy could be started.
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##article.viewOnOriginalSite##About the authors
Anna Yu. Anisenkova
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District; Saint-Petersburg State University
Author for correspondence.
Email: anna_anisenkova@list.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5642-621X
к.м.н., доцент
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, Sestroretsk; Saint PetersburgSvetlana V. Apalko
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: svetlana.apalko@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3853-4185
SPIN-code: 7053-2507
Cand. Sci. (Biol.)
Russian Federation, Saint PetersburgZakhar P. Asaulenko
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District; North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov
Email: zakhariy@list.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7062-065X
MD
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, Sestroretsk; Saint PetersburgAlexander N. Bogdanov
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District; Saint-Petersburg State University; Military Medical Academy of S.M. Kirov
Email: anbmapo2008@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1964-3690
Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, Sestroretsk; Saint Petersburg; Saint PetersburgDmitry A. Vologzhanin
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: volog@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1176-794X
SPIN-code: 7922-7302
Dr. Sci. (Med.)
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, SestroretskEvgenii Y. Garbuzov
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: eugarbouzov@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2990-0320
MD
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, SestroretskOleg S. Glotov
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: olglotov@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0091-2224
Cand. Sci. (Biol.)
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, SestroretskTatyana A. Kamilova
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: kamilovaspb@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6360-132X
SPIN-code: 2922-4404
Cand. Sci. (Biol.)
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, SestroretskOlga A. Klitsenko
North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov
Email: olkl@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2686-8786
SPIN-code: 7354-3080
Cand. Sci. (Biol.), Associate Professor
Russian Federation, Saint PetersburgEvdokiia M. Minina
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: dulsik@list.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2606-7057
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, Sestroretsk
Sergei V. Mosenko
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: neurologist@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1357-4324
Cand, Sci (Med.)
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, SestroretskDmitry N. Khobotnikov
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District
Email: Xobotnikov@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2943-9004
MD
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, SestroretskSergey G. Sсherbak
Saint-Petersburg City Hospital No 40 of Kurortny District; Saint-Petersburg State University
Email: b40@zdrav.spb.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5047-2792
SPIN-code: 1537-9822
Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor
Russian Federation, 9Б Borisova st., 197706, Saint Petersburg, Sestroretsk; Saint PetersburgReferences
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