Optimizing return on investment (ROI) through the implementation of energy-efficient HVAC solutions

the objective of this study is to develop a scientifically based methodology for optimizing the return on investment (ROI) for implementing HVAC solutions in the Russian market, taking into account the specifics of the 2024-2025 economic situation and the actual range of available equipment. The analysis was conducted taking into account the specifics of the 2024-2025 macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by a combination of a tight monetary policy by the Bank of Russia (maintaining the key rate), accelerated indexation of energy tariffs by natural monopolies, and a profound transformation of the HVAC equipment market driven by import substitution and changes in the supply structure. Methods: the study is based on the development of a comprehensive life cycle cost (LCC) assessment model for engineering systems in accordance with the requirements of GOST R ISO 15686-5. The model is based on an analysis of the technical characteristics of modern multi-zone VRF systems available on the Russian market, as well as a study of the dynamics of design and installation costs in the HVAC segment. It is shown that focusing solely on minimizing capital expenditures (CAPEX), traditionally used in development and operational practices, is becoming less feasible in the current economic environment due to the pronounced "price scissor" effect: rising borrowed financing costs and outpacing growth in operating costs (OPEX). Results: The study formulated and substantiated algorithms for selecting equipment and design solutions for HVAC systems, aimed at maximizing net present value (NPV) over a 10-15-year planning horizon. Conclusions: the proposed approach simultaneously addresses the need to ensure technological sustainability and adaptability of commercial real estate to changing external conditions, including fluctuations in interest rates, energy tariffs, and equipment availability. This optimization format allows us to view engineering systems not as a one-time expense, but as a long-term investment asset requiring a comprehensive life cycle assessment.

return on investment, energy efficiency, HVAC systems, life cycle cost, capital and operating expenditures, multizone VRF systems, commercial real estate, electricity tariffs, key rate of the Bank of Russia, macroeconomic conditions