Increasing the accuracy of forecasting the electricity consumption of an industrial enterprise by machine learning methods using the selection of significant features from a time series

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Abstract

This study aims to improve the accuracy of forecasting the electricity consumption of an enterprise based on an analysis and preliminary processing of input data, as well as at evaluating the effect caused by feature selection on the results of various forecast models. A woodworking enterprise located in Nizhniy Novgorod was selected as a forecast object. Two types of machine learning methods, including neural network and ensemble models, were compared. An approach to selecting the most significant parameters (features) from a time series was considered in order to improve the results of the following ensemble models based on decision trees: adaptive busting (AdaBoost), Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. The most significant features of the initial time series were determined using the calculation of correlation coefficients between the values of electricity consumption in forecasted and previous hours. For the considered forecast object, the most significant features were established to be the consumed energy in hours lagging behind the forecasted hour by the multiple number of days. The schedule of repair works for woodworking machines was used as an additional feature. According to the obtained results, decision tree ensembles can surpass artificial neural networks provided that significant features are selected correctly. Thus, the smallest average error of a neural network model on a test sample comprised 7.0%, while an error of 5.5% was obtained for a Gradient Boosting ensemble model. The use of a repair schedule was demonstrated to additionally increase the forecast accuracy: for the considered ensemble models, the error reduced from 20 to 30%.

About the authors

N. N. Sergeev

Novosibirsk State Technical University

Email: veegresatikin3102@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1534-9072

P. V. Matrenin

Novosibirsk State Technical University

Email: matrenin.2012@corp.nstu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5704-0976

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