Optimizing pipeline integrity management through customized risk modeling: a case study in Kazakhstan

Background: Nowadays industry best practices demonstrate that routine evaluation of pipeline risk enables more efficient resource allocation, particularly by focusing efforts on critical areas. Consequently, process of analyzing the risks associated with operating different facilities in petroleum industry should be considered a fundamental prerequisite for decision-making, especially while managing pipeline network’s integrity. In the Republic of Kazakhstan, the current decision-making framework is founded upon the "technical condition" management model, which differs significantly from the risk-based approach prevalent in the international oil and gas industry. Moreover, as a result of the absence of the comprehensive failure statistics in the petroleum industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan, it makes it even more complicated to implement proper quantitative risk assessment.

Aim: This article aims to demonstrate how customized risk model can be developed to reflect specific conditions and challenges related with the working environment, dangers and threats, as well as data’s quality and availability in Kazakhstan.

Materials and methods: QPRAM (quantitative pipeline risk assessment model), industrial data for the given pipeline X.

Results: The model illustrates fundamental and most important risk factors at high-resolution intervals along the pipeline’s network and was calibrated using real data from the industry to ensure that the resulting risk profiles are reflective of the possible threats and existing operating experience in the given region.

Conclusion: Through the adoption of QPRAM's guiding concepts and methods, all parties in industry may strengthen operational resilience and safety standards against potential threats, protecting the long-term stability and dependability of critical infrastructure networks.