Forecast of natural variations in air temperature and sea ice on the East Siberian Sea shelf for the next centuries

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Abstract

Based on the results of the spectral analysis of the air temperature and ice cover on the East Siberian Sea shelf reconstructed for the last five thousand years, empirical forecast models have been constructed that reflect the “natural scenario” of the dynamics of these climatic parameters during the next centuries. Based on the results of forecast constructions, in the future, the duration of the ice-free period, as well as the temperature of the near-surface air, will tend to increase. The conducted studies allow us to conclude that there is an anthropogenic influence on the temperature regime and ice conditions of the studied region, which manifested itself during the industrial period. Taking into account this factor, it can be assumed that the intensity of the studied natural phenomena will increase at a higher rate than is indicated by model constructions.

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About the authors

V. V. Babich

V.S. Sobolev Institute of Geology and Mineralogy, Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Science; V.I. Il`ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far Eastern Branch Russian Academy of Science

Author for correspondence.
Email: vbabich@igm.nsc.ru
Russian Federation, Novosibirsk; Vladivostok

A. S. Astakhov

V.I. Il`ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far Eastern Branch Russian Academy of Science

Email: astakhov@poi.dvo.ru
Russian Federation, Vladivostok

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Location of the LV77-36 column and other columns used in the work (according to [5-7]). The green dashed line shows the southern boundary of the drifting ice; the red dashed and dotted lines show the salinity isolates in July-September 17 and 23, respectively (according to [7]).

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3. Fig. 2. Paleoreconstructions of anomalies of the average ten-year air temperature on the surface (a) and the duration of the ice-free period (b) during the last 5 thousand years at LV77-36 station (according to [4]).

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4. Fig. 3. Results of spectral analysis of variations in the average ten-year air temperature for the last 5000 years, reconstructed from the column LV77-36, and the forecast for the next 500 years. a – the initial temperature reconstruction (black line), the linear trend (red line) and its extrapolation for the next 500 years (blue dotted line); b, c, d - highlighted 1740-, 470- and 140–year quasi-periods (red lines) approximating their sinusoids (solid blue lines) and their extrapolation for the next 500 years (blue dotted lines); e – comparison of the temperature reconstruction (black line, dotted line shows instrumental measurements) with the time series obtained by summing the trend and approximating sinusoids (red line, dotted line shows 95% confidence interval); e – forecast of the temperature regime indicating 95% confidence interval. The temperature values in diagrams b, c, d are indicated in anomalies relative to the previous component. Yellow flooded

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5. Fig. 4. The results of spectral analysis of the average ten-year duration of the ice- free period (IF, decades) for the last 5,000 years, reconstructed from column LV77-36, and the forecast for the next 500 years. The symbols are analogous to Fig. 3. The values of the duration of the ice- free period in diagrams b, c, d, e ( subperiodicities of 1750, 700, 400 and 200 years, respectively) are indicated in anomalies relative to the previous component.

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