PROJECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE INTENSITY OF EXOGENOUS PROCESSES ON THE TERRITORY OF THE YAMALO-NENETS AUTONOMOUS DISTRICT

Alexander Kislov; Кислов А. В.; Ali Alyautdinov; Аляутдинов А. Р.; Alisa Baranskaya; Баранская А. В.; Nataliya Belova; Белова Н. Г.; Daria Bogatova; Богатова Д. М.; Marina Vikulina; Викулина М. А.; Irina Zheleznova; Железнова И. В.; Galina Surlova; Суркова Г. В.; Gleb Kraev; Краев Г. Н.

doi:10.31857/S2686739723600388

PROJECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE INTENSITY OF EXOGENOUS PROCESSES ON THE TERRITORY OF THE YAMALO-NENETS AUTONOMOUS DISTRICT

Authors: Kislov A.¹, Alyautdinov A.¹, Baranskaya A.¹, Belova N.¹, Bogatova D.¹, Vikulina M.¹, Zheleznova I.¹, Surlova G.¹, Kraev G.²^,3
Affiliations:
1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography
2. National Research University Higher School of Economics
3. Scientific Center for the Study of the Arctic
Issue: Vol 510, No 2 (2023)
Pages: 233-240
Section: ГЕОГРАФИЯ
URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/2686-7397/article/view/135780
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686739723600388
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/ULATSW
ID: 135780

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Abstract

The climate changes taking place in the Arctic are expressed in the increase in extreme values, as well as in a wide range of processes of degradation of permafrost, the state of which, being sensitive to climate change, causes the activation of rapidly proceeding exogenous processes. To predict the climate of the YaNAO for the middle of the 21st century, data from 42 models of the CMIP6 project were used. The temperature in January will increase by about 3.5 (on the coast of the Kara Sea even by 4.5°C), and in July by ~2.5°C everywhere. The 5 and 95% quantiles will increase by 3 and 4.5°С in January and by 2 and 3°С in July, respectively. Monthly precipitation will increase by an average of 10% in January and remain unchanged in July. The 95% quantile values will increase by 30% and 10% in January and July, respectively. The number of days with frost will be reduced. Warming in combination with an increase in precipitation will lead to an increase in the activity of avalanches, snow flows and mudflows on the eastern slopes of the Urals, as well as on the characteristics of landslides, abrasion, suffusion, erosion, thermokarst, and solifluction. Climate-dependent sectors of the economy should be ready for predictable changes in the natural environment.

Keywords

climate projection, projection of exogenous processes in the Arctic, CMIP6, climate risk projection

References

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