Analytical forecasting of consumer demand transformation in the Russian packaging market under structural economic changes

the article presents research results on transformation processes in the Russian packaging market in the context of changing consumer requirements and structural economic shifts. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the market's sectoral structure, consumption dynamics of various packaging materials, and expert assessments, key industry development trends are identified and prospective directions of consumer demand transformation are forecasted. An analytical model for predicting consumer requirements has been developed, accounting for the interrelationship and complex influence of economic, technological, socio-cultural, environmental, political-legal, competitive, and logistical factors. The proposed mathematical model allows for a quantitative assessment of the influence of various groups of factors under alternative market development scenarios and ensures high forecast accuracy. The main market development drivers in the medium term are identified, including import substitution, growth in polymer materials recycling, and e-commerce expansion. A detailed analysis of the key stages of transformation of the packaging industry for the period 2015-2024, including business consolidation processes, was conducted. It is established that alongside traditional economic factors, the importance of environmental and socio-cultural aspects is increasing, requiring adjustments to packaging manufacturers' development strategies. A forecast of demand for major types of packaging products through 2027 is presented, reflecting structural market changes. Methodological approaches to cross-country comparisons of packaging markets are proposed, aimed at overcoming existing limitations in statistical accounting and analysis.

demand forecasting, packaging products, consumer requirements, structural market analysis, import substitution, consumption greening, economic transformation