Assessment of the impact of critical imports on the economic development prospects of the regions

the increasing processes of deglobalization, which include, among other things, increasing the mechanisms for implementing external pressure as a tool for ensuring the global competitiveness of individual countries, significantly raise the urgency of studying adaptive directions for the implementation of import substitution policy. The most important of them should include a comprehensive analysis of import dependence from the perspective of determining the most critical groups of product nomenclatures supplied to the regions. This approach will allow not only to determine the degree of vulnerability of regional economic systems to import restrictions on critically important products, but also to develop tools to assess the impact of import localization on the sustainability of regional economic development. This article is devoted to solving this problem, the purpose of which is to develop methodological tools for identifying critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine the relationship between critical imports and regional economic growth. The methodological basis of the study is determined by the tools for identifying critical imports within the framework of its three-stage authentication: import volumes, the share of its participation in creating added value of the final product of the region, and country affiliation. The volume and cost parameters obtained form the basis for spatial analysis of panel data, which determines the impact of critical imports on economic development prospects. The subjects of the study are the subjects of the North-Western Federal District of the Russian Federation. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as the degree of their influence on the industrial growth of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District.

critical imports, regional economic systems, stability of economic dynamics, industrial production, sanctions pressure, spatial analysis of panel data, macroeconomic interrelations