Numerical analysis of ecology-economic model for forest fire fighting in Baikal region

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Abstract

Forest fires lead to the serious damage of ecological state and national economy of the country. This problem is especially relevant for Siberians. According to Greenpeace, Siberian forest fires in 2019 reached record levels in the entire history of observation in terms of burning area and the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. It leads not only to a deterioration in the health of Siberians, but also to environmental problems of the region. Note that the large-scale fire-prevention measures entails enormous financial costs. Therefore, economical, ecological and mathematical modeling of the situations, arose in forest fires countering, becomes actual. The paper is devoted to optimal control problem of forest fires fighting. Its prototype is the well-known Parks model. To investigate the model, we apply the modern programming language Julia, which is designed to mathematical calculations and numerical studies. We made an extensive computational experiment in this model and a numerical analysis of corresponding optimal control problems. The obtained results were examined both on the adequacy of the model, and on the possibility of using the Julia language and the included solvers of mathematical problems.

About the authors

Alexander P Sukhodolov

Baikal State University; Limnological Institute SB RAS

Author for correspondence.
Email: 3952_2015@mail.ru

Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, First Vice Rector - Vice Rector for Science

11, Lenin str., Irkutsk, 664003, Russian Federation; 3, Ulan-Batorskaya St., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation

Polina G Sorokina

Baikal State University; Limnological Institute SB RAS

Email: ermolaeva_polina@mail.ru

Senior Lecturer of Department of Mathematics and Computer Science

11, Lenin str., Irkutsk, 664003, Russian Federation; 3, Ulan-Batorskaya St., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation

Andrey P Fedotov

Limnological Institute SB RAS

Email: info@lin.irk.ru

Doctor of Sciences (Geology and Mineralogy), Director of Limnological Institute SB RAS

3, Ulan-Batorskaya St., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation

References

  1. A. P. Sukhodolov, A. A. Izmestiev, Economic accessibility of forest resources as rent-forming factor and assessment basis for forest raw material potential [Ekonomicheskaya dostupnost’ lesnykh resursov kak rentoobrazuyushchiy faktor i osnova otsenki lesosyr’yevogo potentsiala], Bulletin of Baikal State University (6 (86)) (2012) 32-35, in Russian.
  2. A. V. Panov, A. S. Prokushkin, A. V. Bryukhanov, M. A. Korets, E. I. Ponomarev, N. V. Sidenko, G. K. Zrazhevskaya, A. V. Timokhina, M. O. Andreae, A complex approach for the estimation of carbonaceous emissions from wildfires in Siberia, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 43 (5) (2018) 295-301.
  3. I. V. Tikhonova, N. V. Efimova, Prevalence of the chronic respiratory tract pathology in teenagers: role of some factors [Chastota khronicheskoy patologii verkhnikh dykhatel’nykh putey u podrostkov: rol’ nekotorykh faktorov], Hygiene and Sanitation (6) (2012) 51-53, in Russian.
  4. G. Dorrer, I. Buslov, S. Yarovoy, Conception of managing system for wild fire struggle [Kontseptsiya sistemy upravleniya bor’boy s prirodnymi pozharami], Siberian Fire and Rescue Bulletin (1 (1)) (2016) 38-44, in Russian.
  5. A. V. Kolyada, Optimization of the process of extinguishing a forest fire using simulation [Optimizatsiya protsessa tusheniya lesnogo pozhara s ispol’zovaniyem imitatsionnogo modelirovaniya], Scientific Notes of the RSSU (8) (2010) 89-94, in Russian.
  6. G. M. Parks, Development and application of a model for suppression of forest fires, Management Science 10 (4) (1964) 760-766. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.10.4.760.
  7. M. Parlar, R. G. Vicson, Optimal forest fire control: an extension of Park’s model, Forest Science 28 (2) (1982) 345-355. doi: 10.1093/forestscience/28.2.345.
  8. M. Parlar, Optimal forest fire control with limited reinforcements, Optimal Control Applications Methods 4 (1983) 185-191. doi: 10.1002/oca.4660040208.
  9. J. Rodriguez-Veiga, M. J. Ginzo-Villamayor, B. Casas-Mendez, An integer linear programming model to select and temporally allocate resources for fighting forest fires, Forests 9 (583) (2018) 2-18. doi: 10.3390/f9100583.
  10. C. Artigues, E. Hébrard, Y. Pencolé, A. Schutt, P. J. Stuckey, A study of evacuation planning for wildfires, in: The Seventeenth International Workshop on Constraint Modelling and Reformulation (ModRef 2018), Lille, France, 2018. URL https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01814083
  11. J. Rodriguez-Veiga, I. Gomez-Costa, M. J. Ginzo-Villamayor, B. CasasMendez, J. L. Saiz-Diaz, Assignment problems in wildfire suppression: models for optimization of aerial resource logistics, Forest Science 64 (5) (2018) 504-514. doi: 10.1093/forsci/fxy012.
  12. E. V. Bogdanova, G. V. Davydova, Methodical approaches for forecasting forest fire in the Irkutsk region [Metodicheskiye podkhody k prognozirovaniyu lesnykh pozharov v Irkutskoy oblasti], in: S. V. Chuprova, N. N. Danilenko (Eds.), Revitalization of the Intellectual and Resource Potential of the Regions: New Challenges for the Management of Companies Materials of the 3rd All-Russian Conference, Irkutsk, 18 May 2017, BGU, Irkutsk, 2017, pp. 45-51, in Russian. URL http://vseup.ru/static/files/IRKUTSK_-_2017.pdf
  13. E. A. Pyanova, A. A. Faleychik, L. M. Faleychik, Forest fires in Transbaikalia: numerical simulation [Lesnyye pozhary v Zabaykal’ye: chislennoye modelirovaniye], in: Kulagin readings: technology and technology of production processes XV International Scientific and Practical Conference: a collection of articles in 3 parts. Part 2, 2015, pp. 125-129, in Russian.
  14. O. A. Belykh, G. D. Rusetskaya, Instruments effectiveness assessment to implement sustainable management principles of forest systems in Eastern Siberia [Otsenka effektivnosti instrumentov realizatsii printsipov ustoychivogo upravleniya lesnymi sistemami v vostochnoy Sibiri], Forestry Bulletin 23 (1) (2019) 5-13, in Russian.
  15. J. B. Ditsevich, O. A. Belykh, G. D. Rusetskaya, Counteracting crimes in the sphere of forest resources’ use: problems and perspectives [Protivodeystviye prestupnosti v sfere lesopol’zovaniya: problemy i perspektivy], Russian Journal of Criminology 11 (2) (2017) 308-317, in Russian. doi: 10.17150/2500-4255.2017.11(2).308-317.
  16. I. Y. Kulagina, Problems of reforestation in Russia [Problemy vosstanovleniya lesov v Rossii], in: The economic development of society in modern crisis conditions. Collection of articles of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. In 3 parts. Samara, May 13, 2017, 2017, pp. 128-131 [in Russian].
  17. M. Sherrington, Learn the language of Julia, Packt Publishing, 2016.
  18. L. S. Pontryagin, V. G. Boltyanskii, R. V. Gamkrilidze, E. F. Mishenko, Mathematical theory of optimal processes [Matematicheskaya teoriya optimal’nykh protsessov], Fizmatlit, Moscow, 1961, in Russian.
  19. V. I. Gurman, Turnpike solutions in the procedures seeking optimal controls, Automation and Remote Control 64 (3) (2003) 399-408. doi: 10.1023/A:1023209524049.

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML
Download