Measuring and analyzing the impact of oil price fluctuations on Iraq's gross domestic product (GDP) variable by using the ARDL model for the period (1970–2020)

The Iraqi economy suffers from the problem of increasing dependence on the rentier resource, which represents the greatest proportion of the recent eras of contribution to the gross domestic product, and therefore this resource has a longitudinal dominance to influence the above variable, the studied time series extends from 1970-2020, In this article use the standard analysis approach was adopted in order to identify the long and short-term effects and analyze the interrelationships linking the studied variables. In light of the assumptions of the economic theory and when using the ARDL model, it becomes clear that there is a co-integration between oil prices and GDP based on the calculated F-test value, which is greater than the upper boundary value. Joint integration between the two studied variables, the Bound Test table. The results of the standard analysis are shown that all the variables’ coefficients are in line with the assumptions of the economic theory, as an increase in oil prices by 1% will lead to an increase in the gross domestic product by approximately 6.15%. A positive relationship with the gross domestic product, as well as the cumulative sum test and its squares, which shows that the behavior of The study is within critical limits and the model does not suffer from possible structural problems in the future.