Email this article Modification of Adaptive Approaches in the Modeling of Electricity Production in the Russian Federation
- Authors: Kontsevaya N.V.1
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Affiliations:
- Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
- Issue: Vol 18, No 2 (2022)
- Pages: 228-234
- Section: Articles
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/2541-8025/article/view/147080
- ID: 147080
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Abstract
The paper presents an overview of methods for modeling nonlinear dynamics and provides recommendations for choosing a suitable model by analyzing the dynamics of growth rates of electricity production in Russia. A modified autoregression model is proposed as the best approximation, on the basis of which it is possible to estimate a short-term forecast. The economic analysis and justification of the division of the initial sample were carried out, the quality and accuracy of the constructed model were evaluated, conclusions were drawn.
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##article.viewOnOriginalSite##About the authors
Natalya V. Kontsevaya
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Email: nvkontsevaya@fa.ru
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematics Moscow, Russian Federation
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