Speculation in securities on the stock market of the Russian Empire in the early 20th century: a behavioral analysis

The article explores the speculation of securities on the stock market of the Russian Empire in the early 20th century as part of the mechanism of price formation and the coordination of interests among banking syndicates, industrial capital, and private players. The article reconstructs a typology of market participants: "capitalists" (long-term investors), professional speculators, and the "public," differentiated by their appetite for risk, investment horizon, and behavior discipline. Speculation in late imperial Russia was an integral mechanism of market functioning: it ensured the circulation of securities, and the actions of the state and banks directly influenced the investment climate and the structure of interests in the capital market. Speculation supported high market liquidity. The article systematically demonstrates that professionals in trading considered the psychological climate in their investment practices: the level of stock market excitement, the mood of the trading public regarding specific securities, and the perception of the innovativeness of companies. The research relies on the approach of behavioral finance: price dynamics is interpreted as an expression of collective expectations, excessive optimism/panic, along with rational factors. The source base includes professional treatises on speculation (A. A. Vasiliev, 1912), journalistic writings by market participants (I. P. Manus, 1905), and materials from the Moscow State Archive (fond 143, Moscow Exchange Committee). It is shown that risk-free state funds served as the benchmark for assessing other assets, and discrepancies with them and the state of the money market directed capital flows between "risk-free" and more profitable securities. Through industry examples (securities of railway companies), the institutional features of issuing securities (stocks and bonds) are illustrated. Methods for assessing the investment attractiveness of securities prevalent in the financial practices of the period are described. The practices of targeted support for the quotes of government bonds by states are examined; markets perceived the stability of public funds as a key element of financial stability and increased trust in policy. The research approaches of behavioral finance turned out to be a productive methodological foundation for analyzing materials on the history of the stock market.

stock market, Russian Empire, securities speculation, price formation, government bonds, behavioral finance, market microstructure, risk-free benchmark, behavioral anomalies, financial intervention