Forecast estimates of hydrocarbon potential areas of Antarctica based on geophysical data measured within the concentric geological-morphological features of the Earth's crust and glacial cover

The subject of this article is the concentric geological-morphological features identified in Antarctica in the glacial cover, the seismotectonic structure of the earth's crust, the values of heat flow, and the number of lakes. Previously, the interrelationships of the geographical location of concentric geologic-morphological features and the degassing of methane effluents from the subglacial layers of the earth's crust in the Arctic were revealed. The article examines the concentric features identified by the results of digitized relief maps of various deep surfaces (the surface of glaciers, the "over-cover", the "sole-cover" of the earth's crust), the values of heat flow, the number of lakes in Antarctica based on satellite, ground-based geophysical data used to prospecting of hydrocarbon deposits. The scope of the results is related to probabilistic forecasting of regions that are promising for prospecting and exploration of new hydrocarbon deposits in Antarctica. At the same time, reference statistical data were used on the densities of the distribution of thickness crust and heat flow corresponding to the Gaussian distribution characteristic of the concentric features of the Russian oil and gas basins. It is shown for the first time that the spatial arrangement of the number of subglacial lakes within certain areas of concentric geological-morphological features in Antarctica can be approximated in accordance with the distribution described by Poisson's law. The research methods are based on the principles of probability theory and statistics. Histograms and distribution densities are constructed, the average risk (Bayes criterion) is determined, the decision threshold for heat flow values, and the areas of concentric features normalized to the number of subglacial lakes in them, measured within the location of 48 concentric features. The scientific novelty of the conducted research lies in the fact that for the first time the coordinates of the geographical location, spatial dimensions (diameters of 200-1000 kilometers) were determined and estimates of the probabilities were made to predict the hydrocarbon potential of 48 concentric geological-morphological features identified on the surface of the glacial cover and the upper and lower layers of the earth's crust in Antarctica. The main conclusions of the study are the revealed interrelations of hydrocarbon-perspective concentric geological-morphological features of the seismotectonic structure of the earth's crust (Moho), values of heat flow and density of distribution of subglacial lakes in Antarctica. The practical novelty of the study lies in the fact that, for the first time, mathematical forecasting of the presence of hydrocarbon-promising concentric geological-morphological features on the territory of East and West Antarctica has been performed.

Antarctica, concentric geological-morphological features, number of subglacial lakes, methods of probability theory, forecast of hydrocarbon-promising regions, satellite data, heat flow, structures of the glacial cover, the thickness of the Earth's crust, mantle plumes