National prospects for the implementation of Europe’s "De-risking" policy in relations with China

Based on the concept of hedging, the EU's risk-reduction policy regarding China has been analyzed, characterizing China in the post-COVID period as a partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival simultaneously. The study focuses on the national aspects and prospects of implementing the "derisking" policy, examined through the lens of Germany, France, Eastern European countries, and Italy. The article pays particular attention to the development of national strategies towards China and the Indo-Pacific region as a whole, as well as the practical implementation of the risk reduction policy, including states promoting their positions within the EU Council. It discusses how EU member states apply the hedging strategy in key issues of strategic competition between the US and China. The methodological basis of the research comprises a systemic approach using inductive-deductive algorithms, as well as content analysis of strategic documents from the EU and member states, which allowed for the examination of the "derisking" policy at both the European and national levels. A SWOT analysis was applied to assess the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with the implementation of the "derisking" policy. It has been revealed that the "derisking" policy at the Brussels level leans towards a conflictual type of hedging, while most nation-states remain within the framework of cooperative hedging. The "risk reduction" policy is a long-term, costly strategy that encourages European countries to maintain constructive relations with Beijing. In key areas of policy, member states will act flexibly, forming changing coalitions and maneuvering between the US and China. The national practice of implementing the "risk reduction" policy has limited potential and depends on the experience of economic relations with China, domestic political conjuncture, and the depth of relations with the US. The author concludes that the French approach is the most objective, as it is oriented towards strengthening the EU's strategic autonomy not only from China but also from the US and encompasses the geopolitical and geo-economic aspects of competition. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the fact that based on the analysis of correlations between strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for Europe in its relations with China, the author proposes a model of "strategic interdependence" instead of "strategic autonomy."

USA, China, strategic competition, EU strategy, hedging, Germany, France, Eastern European countries, Italy, strategic interdependence