The relationship between the level of expected volatility and multipliers in the US stock market

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Abstract

The subject of the research of this article is to identify the relationship between financial multipliers and the expected volatility (implied volatility) of shares of companies in the software sector of the United States. The purpose of the work is to investigate and characterize the effects of expected volatility on the undervaluation or overvaluation of company shares. The object of this study are 38 largest companies in the software sector with a capitalization of more than $ 5 billion. Special attention is paid to the nonparametric Tail model, which allows us to identify and confirm the existence of a relationship between the level of expected volatility and the logarithm of the growth rate of the financial multiplier.   The very novelty of the proposed article lies, firstly, in the fact that the analysis was carried out in the coronavirus era, which is timely and interesting, since the Covid-19 pandemic had a serious impact not only on the lives and health of citizens, but also on financial markets. Secondly, interest in this topic cannot weaken due to the constant development and modification of financial markets, which forces investors to develop new and new approaches to evaluating companies for profit. Identifying undervalued companies in the financial market is one of the key goals of analysts and investors, since timely finding companies whose fair value is currently undervalued can bring significantly more income than investing in companies whose stock value is fairly valued. The results achieved within the framework of the conducted research are of practical significance, since they allow us to rank the identified companies with the same level of undervaluation by the value of expected volatility and, thereby, choose the most attractive for investments.

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