ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF MACRO-INDICATORS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2003 TO 2016

The primary purpose of this work is the analysis and modelling of the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators. Standard tools for parameter identification of trends for macro-indicators and determination of structural changes are applied.The global financial crisis inflicted severe damage to the Russian economy. Despite the efforts to stabilise the situation, the consequences of the crisis could not be overcome. The growth model, which provided economic growth before the crisis, has exhausted itself. The dependence of the Russian economy from minerals export has not diminished, but the return of favourable market conditions declined. In the period after the crisis, the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators is characterised as a -shaped curve.And the economic downturn started long before the escalation of the geopolitical situation around Russia, sanctions and contr-sanctions. However, coupled with the drastic reduction the price of raw materials, these external factors have led to regression. In the case of further reducing of investment, the economic growth can not be obtained. But it is necessary not only to overcome the consequences of the current crisis but also to change the economic model.

economic growth, macroeconomic indicators, trend models, forecasting