Interdisciplinary study of the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia (1970-2022)
- 作者: Menshikov V.1, Kudins J.1, Kokarevica A.2, Komarova V.1, Cizo E.1
-
隶属关系:
- Daugavpils University
- Riga Stradins University
- 期: 卷 23, 编号 4 (2023)
- 页面: 825-838
- 栏目: Contemporary society: the urgent issues and prospects for development
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/2313-2272/article/view/322980
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-2272-2023-23-4-825-838
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/HYQPFP
- ID: 322980
如何引用文章
全文:
详细
The article aims at identifying the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia. The main research question is whether it is possible in the near future to increase fertility in Latvia, as planned in the “Strategy for the Reproduction of the Nation FAMILY - LATVIA - 2030 (2050)”. The authors conducted the mathematical analysis of fertility in Latvia for the medium-term period of 1970-2022 (53 years), which includes two decades of the so-called “Soviet era” and the period of independence after the collapse of the USSR. The study is based on the available data of the official Latvian statistics on the total fertility rate. The novelty of this interdisciplinary - demographic, economic and sociological - study is determined by the use of mathematical analysis to identify demographic trends, which is not typical for the publications of Latvian and foreign researchers. The study is also based on the theory of economic cycles to identify demographic fertility cycles and their phases in Latvia and to predict fertility rates in Latvia for the near future. Furthermore, the analysis of the sociological surveys data allowed to understand the main reason for the steady - in the medium-term perspective - linear decline in fertility in Latvia. This reason is value changes in the society, in which children are no longer at the center of the life value system of men and especially women in Latvia, i.e., are no longer considered necessary for the realization of their life goals and ambitions. Based on the results of the mathematical analysis of the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia, the authors believe that the decline in fertility in Latvia will continue for several more years before the bottom of the next demographic fertility cycle will be reached (and this bottom will be lower than the previous one, i.e., below 1.22 -1.25), and there will be an upturn in a linearly declining fertility trend. However, even this expected rise will not reach the previous peak; the next peak is likely to be below 1.74. Thus, the desired and even expected by the creators of the “Strategy for the Reproduction of the Nation” increase in fertility in Latvia to the level of 1.77 by 2027 is considered by the authors unattainable.
作者简介
V. Menshikov
Daugavpils University
编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: vladimirs.mensikovs@du.lv
доктор социологии, профессор Института гуманитарных и социальных наук Vienibas St., 13, Daugavpils, Latvia, LV-5401
J. Kudins
Daugavpils University
Email: janis.kudins@du.lv
доктор социальных наук, доцент кафедры экономики Vienibas St., 13, Daugavpils, Latvia, LV-5401
A. Kokarevica
Riga Stradins University
Email: anita.kokarevica@rsu.lv
доктор наук в экономике и предпринимательстве, доцент кафедры общественного здоровья и эпидемиологии Dziriema St., 16, Riga, Latvia, LV-1007
V. Komarova
Daugavpils University
Email: vera.komarova@du.lv
доктор экономики, ведущий исследователь Института гуманитарных и социальных наук Vienibas St., 13, Daugavpils, Latvia, LV-5401
E. Cizo
Daugavpils University
Email: edmunds.cizo@du.lv
доктор наук в экономике и предпринимательстве, доцент кафедры экономики факультета социальных наук Vienibas St., 13, Daugavpils, Latvia, LV-5401
参考
- Adhia N. Some demographic trends in the world’s most populous country-to-be. Demographics, Social Policy, and Asia (Part II). 2018; 23 (2).
- Baumejster А. Do not work! Be lazy and enjoy life! YouTube. 2023. (In Russ.).
- Belov A.A., Danilov A.N., Rotman D.G. Value factor of the countries uneven development. RUDN Journal of Sociology. 2023; 23 (2).
- Bērziņš A. Changes in birth rates. Krišjāne Z., Krūmiņš J. (Eds.). Population Reproduction and Challenges for Renewal of Society in Latvia. Riga; 2019. (In Latv.).
- Brannan D. A First Course in Mathematical Analysis. Cambridge; 2006.
- Central Statistical Bureau of the Republic of Latvia. IDK010. Fertility rates 1965-2022. 2023. URL: https://data.stat.gov.lv/pxweb/lv/OSP_PUB/START__POP__ID__IDK/IDK010/table/tableViewLayout1.
- Deshpande J.V. Mathematical Analysis and Applications: An Introduction. Alpha Science International; 2004.
- Eglīte P. Birth rates and family policy in Latvia, 1990-2009. LZA Vēstis=Bulletin of the Latvian Academy of Sciences. 2011; 65 (3/4). (In Latv.).
- Eurostat. Total fertility rate (tps00199). 2023. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography/demography-population-stock-balance/database
- Gedroica V. Differential Calculus of Functions of One Argument. 2005. URL: https://de.du.lv/matematika/gedroica/Difrek1.pdf. (In Latv.).
- Interdepartmental Coordination Center. National Regeneration Strategy FAMILY - LATVIA - 2030 (2050). 2022. URL: https://www.pkc.gov.lv/sites/default/files/inline-files/TAS_Plans%2009.11 %20projekts.pdf. (In Latv.).
- Kearney M.S., Levine Ph.B. The causes and consequences of declining US fertility. 2022. URL: https://www.economicstrategygroup.org/publication/kearney_levine.
- Klimovičs R. (2022) Strategy for national regeneration. Looking for a way out of the “demographic hole”. URL: https://lvportals.lv/norises/346533-tautas-ataudzes-strategijamekle-izeju-no-demografiskas-bedres-2022. (In Latv.).
- Korotaev А.V., Tsirel’ S.V. Kondratieff waves in the global economic dynamics. Korotaev А.V., Khalturina D.A. (Eds.). System Monitoring. Global and Regional Development. Мoscow; 2009. (In Russ.).
- Krišjāne Z., Krūmiņš J. (Eds.). Population Reproduction and Challenges for Renewal of Society in Latvia. Riga; 2019. (In Latv.).
- Latvia Television Program “Forbidden Technique”. [Europe is dying - what can be done to have more children in Latvia? Explores the “Forbidden Technique”]. 2023. URL: https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/zinu-analize/eiropa-izmirst-ko-darit-lai-latvija-dzimtu-vairakbernu-peta-aizliegtais-panemiens.a491783. (In Latv.).
- McDonald P. A projection of Australia’s future fertility rates. 2020. URL: https://population. gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-09/2020_mcdonald_fertility_projections.pdf
- Mežs I. Ethnic and regional aspects of birth in Latvia 1985-2010. LZA Vēstis=Bulletin of the Latvian Academy of Sciences. 2011; 65 (3/4). (In Latv.).
- Mosakova E.A. Era of covid-19: How the pandemic affected gender inequality and fertility (on the example of BRICS). RUDN Journal of Sociology. 2023; 23 (2). (In Russ.).
- Mubila M. Briefing Note 4: Africa’s demographic trends. 2012. URL: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Policy-Documents/FINAL%20Briefing%20Note%204%20Africas%20Demographic%20Trends.pdf
- Nefyodov S.А. On the theory of demographic cycles. 2001. URL: http://www.hist.msu.ru/Labs/Ecohist/OB8/nefedov.htm. (In Russ.)
- Official statistics portal: Number of births and birth rates. 2023. URL: https://stat.gov.lv/lv/statistikas-temas/iedzivotaji/dzimstiba/238-dzimuso-skaits-un-dzimstibas-koeficienti. (In Latv.).
- Ovechkina N.I., Shulgina N.A. Cyclicity theory in economics and demography. Vestnik NGUEU=Bulletin of the NSUEM. 2012; 2. (In Russ.)
- Pirsko L., Sebre S., Upmane A. Exploring the factors contributing to marriage, fertility, and positive child-parent relationships: A comparison of 2022 and 2004 survey results. Riga; 2022. (In Latv.).
- Pourreza, A., Sadeghi, A., Amini-Rarani, M., Khodayari-Zarnaq R., Jafari H. Contributing factors to the total fertility rate declining trend in the Middle East and North Africa: a systemic review. Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition. 2021; 40 (11).
- Revina I. Econometrics. Riga; 2002. (In Latv.).
- Skirbekk V. Decline and Prosper: Changing Global Birth Rates and the Advantages of Fewer Children. Springer; 2022.
- Stepin V.S. Man. Activity. Culture. Saint Petersburg; 2019. (In Russ.).
- StudySmarter: Economic cycle. Macroeconomics. 2023. URL: https://www.studysmarter.co.uk/explanations/macroeconomics/economic-performance/economic-cycle.
- Tretjakova V., Gedvilaitė-Kordušienė M., Rapolienė G. Women’s pathways to childlessness in Lithuania. Sociālo Zinātņu Vēstnesis=SocialSciences Bulletin. 2020; 31 (2).
- Unāma E., Jansone M. Big interview at the crossroads: Demographer Zane Varpinya. 2022. URL: https://lr1.lsm.lv/lv/raksts/krustpunkta/krustpunkta-liela-intervija-demografe-zanevarpina.a167968. (In Latv.).
- Volodko I. Higher mathematics. Part I. Riga; 2007. (In Latv.).
- World Economic Forum: What Does the Global Decline of the Fertility Rate Look Like? 2022. URL: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/global-decline-of-fertility-rates-visualised.
- Zitmane M., Lāma E. “Wake up and think of the children!”: The ambivalent relationship between motherhood, femininity and anti-vaccination. The New Communication Revolution. Uniwersytet Jagiellonski; 2023.
- Zvidrins P. The dynamics of fertility in Latvia. Population Studies, 1979; 33 (2).
补充文件
